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Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries

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Author Info
Dooley, Michael
Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo
Kletzer, Kenneth

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Abstract

The outlook for economic development for an important group of middle-income countries has once again been buoyed by substantial private capital inflows in the 1990s. As in the 1970s, this development has been met with cautious optimism. This empirical study finds that although debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a "typical" debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with a business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows. Copyright 1996 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 27-50
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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:10:y:1996:i:1:p:27-50

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard D. Haas & Steven A. Symansky & Michael P. Dooley & D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Debt Reduction and Economic Activity," IMF Occasional Papers 68, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Price of LDC Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. R. Gaston Gelos, Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," Business School Working Papers 2008-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jorge Selaive C. & Valentín Délano T., 2006. "Sovereign Spreads: A Factorial Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, April. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "International capital flows and emerging markets: amending the rules of the game?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 137-171. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Kenen, 1996. "Analyzing and managing exchange-rate crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 469-492, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 1996. "Balance-of-Payments Rescue Packages: Can They Work?," RES Working Papers 4046, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martin Uribe, 1996. "The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 552, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley & Sona Shrestha, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1997. "On the determinants and resilience of bond flows to LDCs, 1990-1995: evidence from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico," Research Paper 9703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  10. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 1996. "Paquetes de rescate de la balanza de pagos: ¿Pueden funcionar o no?," RES Working Papers 4047, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002337, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Capital Flows and Herding Behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Komulainen, Tuomas, 1999. "Currency Crisis Theories – Some Explanations for the Russian Case," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/1999, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  16. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003572, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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