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Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances

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Author Info
Conrad, Jennifer
Gultekin, Mustafa N
Kaul, Gautam

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Abstract

We show that there is an asymmetry in the predictability of the volatilities of large versus small firms. Using both univariate and multivariate ARMA-GARCH-M parameterizations, we find that volatility surprises to large market value firms are important to the future dynamics of their own returns as well as the returns of smaller firms. Conversely, however, shocks to smaller firms have no impact on the behavior of either the mean or the variance of the returns of larger capitalization companies. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 597-622
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:4:y:1991:i:4:p:597-622

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  2. George Milunovich, 2004. "Modeling dependence structure in size-sorted portfolios: A Structural Multivariate GARCH Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 55, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. John M.R. Chalmers & Roger M. Edelen & Gregory B. Kadlec, . "The wildcard option in transaction mutual-fund shares," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2005. "Valuing Volatility Spillovers," Research Papers 0506, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. George Milunovich, 2006. "Information Spillovers and Size-sorted Portfolios: Structural Evidence from Australia," Research Papers 0610, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Angelos Kanas & George Kouretas, 2001. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," Working Papers 0101, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cotter, John & Hanly, James, 2005. "Re-evaluating Hedging Performance," MPRA Paper 3523, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2005. "The joint dynamics of liquidity, returns, and volatility across small and large firms," Staff Reports 207, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2006. "An Asymmetric Block Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 189, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  10. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis, 2008. "Idiosyncratic risk, returns and liquidity in the London Stock Exchange: a spillover approach," Working Papers 0017, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. John M.R. Chalmers & Roger M. Edelen & Gregory B. Kadlec, 1999. "The Wildcard Option in Transacting Mutual-Fund Shares," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-03, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  13. Patricia L. Chelley-Steeley & James M. Steeley, 2005. "The leverage effect in the UK stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 409-423, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cotter, John & Hanly, James, 2007. "Hedging Effectiveness under Conditions of Asymmetry," MPRA Paper 3501, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gregory H. Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility
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