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Identifying the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in UK general elections

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  • Georgios Marios
  • María Dolores

Abstract

We explore the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in five UK electoral cycles during 1992–2014. Using the Understanding Society and the British Household Panel Surveys, we investigate the importance of political sentiments and subjective economic evaluations disentangling persistence of party support and unobserved heterogeneity effects. We estimate joint dynamic tripartite models of party support and egocentric perceptions of current and prospective finances, permitting longitudinal simultaneous determination of perceptions of personal finances and political preferences. The results validate the economic voting hypothesis in cycles adjacent to economic downturns: support for the governing political party is positively related to individual perceptions of own financial well-being. Failing to account for simultaneity and not accounting for dynamics and initial political party support inflate the impact of personal financial evaluations.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Marios & María Dolores, 2024. "Identifying the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in UK general elections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 267-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:76:y:2024:i:1:p:267-289.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpad003
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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