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On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo BoveBy
  • Leandro Elia
  • Ron P Smith

Abstract

We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo BoveBy & Leandro Elia & Ron P Smith, 2017. "On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 550-568.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:550-568.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpw050
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    2. Emery, Thomas & Mélon, Lela & Spruk, Rok, 2023. "Does e-procurement matter for economic growth? Subnational evidence from Australia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 318-334.
    3. Atindra Dahal, 2020. "Re-defining Modernity and Development Dimension in Quest of Indigenous and Ingenuous Prosperity of Himalayan Region," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 3(1), pages 11-25, February.
    4. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    5. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2019. "Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-104.
    6. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2023. "Freedom through taxation: the effect of fiscal capacity on the rule of law," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 69-90, August.
    7. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    8. Gunes Gokmen & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2017. "War and Well-Being in Transition: Russo-Georgian Conflict as a Natural Experiment," Working Papers w0243, New Economic School (NES).
    9. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    10. Wim Naudé & Lelys Ernesto Amorós & Tilman Brück, 2023. "State-Based Conflict and Entrepreneurship – Empirical Evidence," HiCN Working Papers 384, Households in Conflict Network.
    11. Vincenzo Bove & Jessica Di Salvatore & Roberto Nisticò, 2023. "Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighborhood," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 671-697.
    12. Martin Philipp Heger & Eric Neumayer, 2022. "Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: Insights from the civil war in Aceh, Indonesia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 394-421, July.
    13. Makram El-Shagi & Steven Yamarik, 2023. "Growth Effects of EU Expansion: A Penalized Synthetic Control Method," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2023/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    14. Ines A. Ferreira, 2018. "An empirical analysis of state fragility and growth: The impact of state ineffectiveness and political violence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Yang, Qi-Cheng & Zheng, Mingbo & Wang, Jun-Sheng & Wang, Yun-Peng, 2022. "The shocks of armed conflicts to renewable energy finance: Empirical evidence from cross-country data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    16. Ines A. Ferreira, 2018. "An empirical analysis of state fragility and growth: The impact of state ineffectiveness and political violence," WIDER Working Paper Series 029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Aleksandar Keseljevic & Rok Spruk, 2022. "Estimating the Effects of Syrian Civil War," Papers 2209.03046, arXiv.org.
    18. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    19. Zenonas Norkus & Aelita Ambrulevičiūtė & Vaidas Morkevičius, 2019. "Relevance of American Diasporas for the Post-Soviet Economic Recovery and Growth of Their Homelands. Armenia and Lithuania in Comparison," Revue d'études comparatives Est-Ouest, Presses Universitaires de France, vol. 0(1), pages 207-239.
    20. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia, 2018. "Economic Development in Peacekeeping Host Countries," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(4), pages 712-728.
    21. Li, Xiao & Qiao, Yuanbo & Shi, Lei, 2019. "Has China's war on pollution slowed the growth of its manufacturing and by how much? Evidence from the Clean Air Action," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 271-289.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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