Political Consensus, Uncertain Preferences, and Central Bank Independence

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Political Consensus, Uncertain Preferences, and Central Bank Independence

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Muscatelli, V Anton

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Vito Antonio Muscatelli

Abstract

Models where monetary policy is delegated to an independent central bank using contracts or targets usually assume that the preferences of the principal and the agent are known with certainty. However, if there is no consensus in society about the relative costs of inflation and output stabilization, the delegation solution may not produce a better outcome for the median voter than discretion. This paper examines the robustness of the institutional solutions to the credibility problem with uncertain preferences. The author also examines the related issue of whether political parties have an interest in moving towards central bank independence. Copyright 1998 by Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 50 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 412-30
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:50:y:1998:i:3:p:412-30

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Paper
- Anton Muscatelli, 1996. "Political Consensus, Uncertain Preferences and Central Bank Independence," Working Papers 9615, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Nov 1996.

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Jürgen & Waller, Christopher, 1993. "Central Banking as a Political Principal-Agent Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Jurgen & Waller, Christopher J, 1997. "Central Banking as a Political Principal-Agent Problem," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 378-93, April.
Al-Nowaihi, A & Levine, Paul L, 1996. "Independent but Accountable: Walsh Contracts and the Credibility Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 1387, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- McCallum, Bennett T, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central-Bank Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 207-11, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Spinelli, Franco, 1996. "Gibson's Paradox and Policy Regimes: A Comparison of the Experience in the US, UK and Italy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(4), pages 468-92, September.
Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lohmann, Susanne, 1992. "Optimal Commitment in Monetary Policy: Credibility versus Flexibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 273-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, 'Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," CEPR Discussion Papers 1249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, 'Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," Papers 595, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Charles Nolan & Eric Schaling, . "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Central Bank Accountability," Bank of England working papers 54, Bank of England.
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Herrendorf, Berthold & Lockwood, Ben, 1996. "Rogoff's 'Conservative' Central Banker Restored," CEPR Discussion Papers 1386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Herrendorf, Berthold & Lockwood, Ben, 1996. "Rogoff's Conservative Central Banker Restored," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 450, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Herrendorf, Berthold & Lockwood, Ben, 1997. "Rogoff's "Conservative" Central Banker Restored," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 476-95, November.
Michael D. Bordo & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "The gold standard as a rule," Working Paper 9205, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael D. Bordo & Finn E. Kydland, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a Rule," NBER Working Papers 3367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fregert, Klas & Jonung, Lars, 1996. "Inflation and Switches between Specie and Paper Standards in Sweden 1668-1931: A Public Finance Interpretation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(4), pages 444-67, September.
Waller, Christopher J., 1992. "A bargaining model of partisan appointments to the central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 411-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lossani, Marco & Natale, Piergiovanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 1998. "Incomplete Information in Monetary Policy Games: Rules Rather Than a Conservative Central Banker," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 33-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Crucial Issues Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1997. "Crucial issues concerning central bank independence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Canzoneri, Matthew B & Nolan, Charles & Yates, Tony, 1996. "Mechanisms for Achieving Monetary Stability: Inflation Targeting Versus the ERM," CEPR Discussion Papers 1418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Canzoneri, Matthew B & Nolan, Charles & Yates, Anthony, 1997. "Mechanisms for Achieving Monetary Stability: Inflation Targeting versus the ERM," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 46-60, February.

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Darby, Julia & Li, Chol-Won & Muscatelli, v: Anton, 2000. "Political Uncertainty, Public Expenditure and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- V. Anton Muscatelli & Julia Darby & Chol-Won Li, . "Political Uncertainty, Public Expenditure and Growth," Working Papers 9822, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
- Darby, Julia & Li, Chol-Won & Muscatelli, V. Anton, 2004. "Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 153-179, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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