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What Do We Really Know about the Transatlantic Current Account?

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  • Martin T Braml
  • Gabriel J Felbermayr

Abstract

Do the USA have a current account surplus or a deficit with the EU? Since 2009, official sources disagree: The U.S. Department of Commerce claims a consistent US surplus while Eurostat reports the opposite. International transactions are notoriously difficult to measure accurately, but the size of the transatlantic discrepancy is extremely substantial: over the last 10 years, it has grown to a cumulated 1 Trillion USD. In times of severe trade policy disagreements across the Atlantic, this gap is obviously problematic. This article tries to dissect the transatlantic reporting gap. Two country-pairs—USA-UK and USA-Netherlands—account for almost the entire transatlantic discrepancy, which, in 2017, stood at about 180 billion USD. In the former case, national statistics on net services trade disagree by as much as 55 billion USD; in the latter case, there is a reporting difference in net primary income of about 60 billion USD. In contrast, data provided by the Bundesbank for the German-US current account closely mirror US data. Nonrandom measurement error and, possibly, deliberate manipulation seem to cause the observed discrepancies.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T Braml & Gabriel J Felbermayr, 2019. "What Do We Really Know about the Transatlantic Current Account?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(3), pages 255-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:65:y:2019:i:3:p:255-274.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifz012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2020. "Transatlantische Handelspolitik vor, während und nach Trump," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(12), pages 908-913, December.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Henning Vöpel & Harms Bandholz & Gabriel Felbermayr & Christoph Spengel & Jost Heckemeyer & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Henrik Müller & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2020. "The US Before the Election Campaign: The Traces of Donald Trump in Business and Politics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 03-29, January.
    4. Christian Grimme, 2020. "On Global Current Account Balances in 2019," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 49-53, February.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Stamern, Vincent, 2021. "Transatlantischer Neustart: Vorschläge zur handelspolitischen Zusammenarbeit zwischen EU und USA," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 250014, June.
    6. Martin T. Braml & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2022. "The EU self-surplus puzzle: an indication of VAT fraud?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1075-1097, October.
    7. Braml, Martin & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2021. "Die USA sind mit großem Abstand Europas wichtigster Wirtschaftspartner," Kiel Policy Brief 150, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Stamern, Vincent, 2021. "Transatlantic restart: Proposals for trade cooperation between the EU and the United States," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 250017, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; statistical discrepancies; service trade; trade war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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