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FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries

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Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) had experienced an export boom as well as a surge in capital inflows up to the outbreak of the economic and financial crisis, which had a major negative impact on these two facets of the CESEE growth model. Did the long-term growth prospects of the CESEE countries deteriorate, too? To answer this question, we estimate the long-run relationship and test the causality between capital flows, exports and industrial production. Vector error correction models show that exports and the stock of FDI in the CESEE region are positively related to industrial production and thus economic growth. By contrast, portfolio investment is only weakly related to the region’s industrial growth performance. These findings imply that the CESEE countries should pursue two objectives: remain attractive locations for inward FDI and enhance their export prospects.

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 70-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2011:i:1:b:4
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    Cited by:

    1. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Tokunaga, Masahiro, 2013. "Macroecnomic Impacts of FDI in Transition Economies: A Meta-Study," RRC Working Paper Series 39, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2011. "Monetary policy implementation and money demand instability during the financial crisis," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 177-186.
    3. Altin Tanku, 2012. "The impact of China and Russia on catching up in South-Eastern Europe," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), European Integration in a Global Economy, chapter 15, pages 157-176, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Marinela GEAMĂNU, 2015. "Analysis of the evolution of foreign direct investment in the European Union, amid the global economic crisis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(603), S), pages 223-236, Summer.
    5. Grigor Stoevsky, 2015. "Exports and foreign direct investment as factors for economic growth in the EU New Member States," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 92-111,112-.
    6. Joseph F. Francois & Julia Wörz, 2011. "Shifts in International Trade and Value Added from 1995 to 2007: Insights into the Drivers of Growth," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 37-56.
    7. Iwasaki, Ichiro & 岩﨑, 一郎 & Tokunaga, Masahiro, 2019. "The Determinants and Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," CEI Working Paper Series 2019-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. repec:agr:journl:v:2(602):y:2015:i:2(602):p:223-236 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Grigor Stoevsky, 2014. "Dependencies between Labour Productivity, Export and FDI in the New EU Member Countries (cointegration analysis at sector and macroeconomic level)," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 15-42.
    10. Dimitar Eftimoski, 2020. "Some new insights on economic convergence and growth in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 863-884, November.
    11. Marcin Grela & Aleksandra Majchrowska & Tomasz Michałek & Jakub Mućk & Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak & Grzegorz Tchorek & Marcin Wagner, 2017. "Is Central and Eastern Europe converging towards the EU-15?," NBP Working Papers 264, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    12. Marijana Andrijic & Tajana Barbic, 2018. "Trick or Treat? The Effect of IMF Programmes on Mobilising FDI in CESEE Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 245-267, July.
    13. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Tokunaga, Masahiro, 2014. "Macroeconomic Impacts of FDI in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-69.
    14. Nadja Walch & Julia Wörz, 2012. "The Impact of Country Risk Ratings and of the Status of EU Integration on FDI Inflows in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-26.
    15. Paul, Justin & Feliciano-Cestero, María M., 2021. "Five decades of research on foreign direct investment by MNEs: An overview and research agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 800-812.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; FDI; capital inflows; heterogeneous firms; cointegration; weak exogeneity test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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