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The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015

Author

Listed:
  • S. Bhatt

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • D. J. Weiss

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • E. Cameron

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • D. Bisanzio

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • B. Mappin

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • U. Dalrymple

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • K. E. Battle

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • C. L. Moyes

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • A. Henry

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

  • P. A. Eckhoff

    (Institute for Disease Modeling, Intellectual Ventures)

  • E. A. Wenger

    (Institute for Disease Modeling, Intellectual Ventures)

  • O. Briët

    (Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • M. A. Penny

    (Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • T. A. Smith

    (Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • A. Bennett

    (Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California San Francisco)

  • J. Yukich

    (Center for Applied Malaria Research and Evaluation, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine)

  • T. P. Eisele

    (Center for Applied Malaria Research and Evaluation, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine)

  • J. T. Griffin

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London)

  • C. A. Fergus

    (Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization)

  • M. Lynch

    (Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization)

  • F. Lindgren

    (University of Bath)

  • J. M. Cohen

    (Clinton Health Access Initiative)

  • C. L. J. Murray

    (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington)

  • D. L. Smith

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford
    Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
    Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine
    Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health)

  • S. I. Hay

    (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
    Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
    Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford)

  • R. E. Cibulskis

    (Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization)

  • P. W. Gething

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford)

Abstract

Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015, and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542–753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Bhatt & D. J. Weiss & E. Cameron & D. Bisanzio & B. Mappin & U. Dalrymple & K. E. Battle & C. L. Moyes & A. Henry & P. A. Eckhoff & E. A. Wenger & O. Briët & M. A. Penny & T. A. Smith & A. Bennett , 2015. "The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015," Nature, Nature, vol. 526(7572), pages 207-211, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:526:y:2015:i:7572:d:10.1038_nature15535
    DOI: 10.1038/nature15535
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    Cited by:

    1. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Valmori, Simona, 2016. "Malaria Risk and Civil Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Sunde, Uwe & Yuan, Song, 2022. "Malaria and Chinese economic activities in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Rossi, Pauline & Villar, Paola, 2020. "Private health investments under competing risks: Evidence from malaria control in Senegal," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Elodie Djemai & Yohan Renard, 2023. "Willingness to pay for a new mosquito-repellent ointment: Experimental evidence from Burkina Faso," Working Papers DT/2023/07, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    5. Thomas Chupein & Rachel Glennerster, 2018. "Evidence-Informed Policy from an International Perspective," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 678(1), pages 62-70, July.
    6. Derek Headey & Giordano Palloni, 2019. "Water, Sanitation, and Child Health: Evidence From Subnational Panel Data in 59 Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 729-752, April.
    7. Jacqueline D. Seufert & Andre Python & Christoph Weisser & Elías Cisneros & Krisztina Kis‐Katos & Thomas Kneib, 2022. "Mapping ex ante risks of COVID‐19 in Indonesia using a Bayesian geostatistical model on airport network data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 2121-2155, October.
    8. Bethencourt, Carlos & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Ngoudji, Charlie Y., 2021. "The Fight against Malaria: A New Index for Quantifying and Assessing Policy Implementation Actions to Reduce Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 108570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gooch, Elizabeth, 2017. "The impact of reduced incidence of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases on global population," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-228.
    10. Tim C. D. Lucas & Anita K. Nandi & Elisabeth G. Chestnutt & Katherine A. Twohig & Suzanne H. Keddie & Emma L. Collins & Rosalind E. Howes & Michele Nguyen & Susan F. Rumisha & Andre Python & Rohan Ara, 2021. "Mapping malaria by sharing spatial information between incidence and prevalence data sets," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 733-749, June.

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