IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v8y2017i1d10.1038_s41467-017-00275-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate

Author

Listed:
  • Vikki Thompson

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Nick J. Dunstone

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Adam A. Scaife

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Doug M. Smith

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Julia M. Slingo

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Simon Brown

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Stephen E. Belcher

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikki Thompson & Nick J. Dunstone & Adam A. Scaife & Doug M. Smith & Julia M. Slingo & Simon Brown & Stephen E. Belcher, 2017. "High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-6, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00275-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00275-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00275-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-017-00275-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Auerbach, Jonathan & Wan, Phyllis, 2020. "Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 814-828.
    2. Xu Lin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-032/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & L. Bloin-Wibe & C. Gessner & V. Humphrey & F. Lehner & A. G. Pendergrass & S. Sippel & J. Zeder & R. Knutti, 2023. "Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00275-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.