IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-37944-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardo García-Carreras

    (University of Florida
    University of Florida)

  • Matt D. T. Hitchings

    (University of Florida)

  • Michael A. Johansson

    (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Matthew Biggerstaff

    (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Rachel B. Slayton

    (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jessica M. Healy

    (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Justin Lessler

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
    UNC Carolina Population Center)

  • Talia Quandelacy

    (University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus)

  • Henrik Salje

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Angkana T. Huang

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Derek A. T. Cummings

    (University of Florida
    University of Florida)

Abstract

Reconstructing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is central to understanding the state of the pandemic. Seroprevalence studies are often used to assess cumulative infections as they can identify asymptomatic infection. Since July 2020, commercial laboratories have conducted nationwide serosurveys for the U.S. CDC. They employed three assays, with different sensitivities and specificities, potentially introducing biases in seroprevalence estimates. Using models, we show that accounting for assays explains some of the observed state-to-state variation in seroprevalence, and when integrating case and death surveillance data, we show that when using the Abbott assay, estimates of proportions infected can differ substantially from seroprevalence estimates. We also found that states with higher proportions infected (before or after vaccination) had lower vaccination coverages, a pattern corroborated using a separate dataset. Finally, to understand vaccination rates relative to the increase in cases, we estimated the proportions of the population that received a vaccine prior to infection.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo García-Carreras & Matt D. T. Hitchings & Michael A. Johansson & Matthew Biggerstaff & Rachel B. Slayton & Jessica M. Healy & Justin Lessler & Talia Quandelacy & Henrik Salje & Angkana T. Huan, 2023. "Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37944-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37944-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37944-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-37944-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Vanessa di Lego & Alexia Prskawetz & Bernardo L. Queiroz, 2021. "An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Isobel Routledge & Saki Takahashi & Adrienne Epstein & Jill Hakim & Owen Janson & Keirstinne Turcios & Jo Vinden & John Tomas Risos & Margaret Rose Baniqued & Lori Pham & Clara Di Germanio & Michael B, 2022. "Using sero-epidemiology to monitor disparities in vaccination and infection with SARS-CoV-2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Sean L. Wu & Andrew N. Mertens & Yoshika S. Crider & Anna Nguyen & Nolan N. Pokpongkiat & Stephanie Djajadi & Anmol Seth & Michelle S. Hsiang & John M. Colford & Art Reingold & Benjamin F. Arnold & Al, 2020. "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Imelda Trejo & Nicolas W Hengartner, 2022. "A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Clara S. Grønkjær & Rune H. B. Christensen & Daniel Kondziella & Michael E. Benros, 2023. "Long-term neurological outcome after COVID-19 using all SARS-CoV-2 test results and hospitalisations in Denmark with 22-month follow-up," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Bello, Piera & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2022. "Education and COVID-19 excess mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Elina Lampi & Daniel Carelli & Jon Pierre & Björn Rönnerstrand, 2023. "Two pandemics: the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on future AMR collaboration in Europe," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Maureen Rebecca Smith & Maria Trofimova & Ariane Weber & Yannick Duport & Denise Kühnert & Max von Kleist, 2021. "Rapid incidence estimation from SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals decreased case detection in Europe during summer 2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Mutahhar A. Dar & Bartlomiej Gladysz & Aleksander Buczacki, 2021. "Impact of COVID19 on Operational Activities of Manufacturing Organizations—A Case Study and Industry 4.0-Based Survive-Stabilise-Sustainability (3S) Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-28, March.
    7. Shakhany, Mohammad Qaleh & Salimifard, Khodakaram, 2021. "Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Mario Morvan & Anna Lo Jacomo & Celia Souque & Matthew J. Wade & Till Hoffmann & Koen Pouwels & Chris Lilley & Andrew C. Singer & Jonathan Porter & Nicholas P. Evens & David I. Walker & Joshua T. Bunc, 2022. "An analysis of 45 large-scale wastewater sites in England to estimate SARS-CoV-2 community prevalence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Kang, Yong Joo & Park, Dojoon & Eom, Young Ho, 2024. "Global contagion of US COVID-19 panic news," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Spyros Niavis & Dimitris Kallioras & George Vlontzos & Marie-Noelle Duquenne, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown Fine Optimality," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    12. Ewen Gallic & Michel Lubrano & Pierre Michel, 2021. "Optimal lockdowns: Analysing the efficiency of sanitary policies in Europe during the first wave," AMSE Working Papers 2111, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    13. Constanza Fosco & Felipe Zurita, 2021. "Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37944-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.