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Early-career setback and future career impact

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Wang

    (Northwestern University
    Northwestern University
    Northwestern University
    Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Benjamin F. Jones

    (Northwestern University
    Northwestern University
    Northwestern University
    National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

  • Dashun Wang

    (Northwestern University
    Northwestern University
    Northwestern University
    Northwestern University)

Abstract

Setbacks are an integral part of a scientific career, yet little is known about their long-term effects. Here we examine junior scientists applying for National Institutes of Health R01 grants. By focusing on proposals fell just below and just above the funding threshold, we compare near-miss with narrow-win applicants, and find that an early-career setback has powerful, opposing effects. On the one hand, it significantly increases attrition, predicting more than a 10% chance of disappearing permanently from the NIH system. Yet, despite an early setback, individuals with near misses systematically outperform those with narrow wins in the longer run. Moreover, this performance advantage seems to go beyond a screening mechanism, suggesting early-career setback appears to cause a performance improvement among those who persevere. Overall, these findings are consistent with the concept that “what doesn’t kill me makes me stronger,” which may have broad implications for identifying, training and nurturing junior scientists.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Wang & Benjamin F. Jones & Dashun Wang, 2019. "Early-career setback and future career impact," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12189-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12189-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyle R. Myers, 2022. "Some Tradeoffs of Competition in Grant Contests," Papers 2207.02379, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    2. Katchanov, Yurij L. & Markova, Yulia V. & Shmatko, Natalia A., 2023. "Empirical demonstration of the Matthew effect in scientific research careers," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    3. Corinna Ghirelli & Enkelejda Havari & Elena Meroni & Stefano Verzillo, 2023. "The long-term causal effects of winning an ERC grant," Working Papers 2313, Banco de España.
    4. Guo, Rufei & Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Ning, 2022. "How does birth endowment affect individual resilience to an adolescent adversity?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 251-265.
    5. Zhu, Wanying & Jin, Ching & Ma, Yifang & Xu, Cong, 2023. "Earlier recognition of scientific excellence enhances future achievements and promotes persistence," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).
    6. Li Hou & Qiang Wu & Yundong Xie, 2022. "Does early publishing in top journals really predict long-term scientific success in the business field?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(11), pages 6083-6107, November.
    7. Feichtinger, Gustav & Grass, Dieter & Kort, Peter M. & Seidl, Andrea, 2021. "On the Matthew effect in research careers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Zhang, Wanshu & Wang, Xuefeng & Chen, Hongshu & Liu, Jia, 2024. "The impact of early debut on scientists: Evidence from the Young Scientists Fund of the NSFC," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(2).
    9. Mario González-Sauri & Giulia Rossello, 2023. "The Role of Early-Career University Prestige Stratification on the Future Academic Performance of Scholars," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 64(1), pages 58-94, February.
    10. Li, Heyang & Wu, Meijun & Wang, Yougui & Zeng, An, 2022. "Bibliographic coupling networks reveal the advantage of diversification in scientific projects," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3).
    11. Marielle Non & Jeroen van Honk & Vince van Houten & Inge van der Weijden & Thed van Leeuwen, 2022. "Getting off to a flying start? The effects of an early-career international mobility grant on scientific performance," CPB Discussion Paper 443, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Yian Yin & Yuxiao Dong & Kuansan Wang & Dashun Wang & Benjamin F. Jones, 2022. "Public use and public funding of science," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1344-1350, October.
    13. Tohalino, Jorge A.V. & Amancio, Diego R., 2022. "On predicting research grants productivity via machine learning," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    14. Yue Wang & Ning Li & Bin Zhang & Qian Huang & Jian Wu & Yang Wang, 2023. "The effect of structural holes on producing novel and disruptive research in physics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(3), pages 1801-1823, March.
    15. Linus Dahlander & Henning Piezunka, 2020. "Why crowdsourcing fails," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Tehmina Amjad & Javeria Munir, 2021. "Investigating the impact of collaboration with authority authors: a case study of bibliographic data in field of philosophy," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 4333-4353, May.
    17. Ma, Yaxue & Ba, Zhichao & Zhao, Haiping & Sun, Jianjun, 2023. "How to configure intellectual capital of research teams for triggering scientific breakthroughs: Exploratory study in the field of gene editing," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    18. Yu, Xiaoyao & Szymanski, Boleslaw K. & Jia, Tao, 2021. "Become a better you: Correlation between the change of research direction and the change of scientific performance," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3).
    19. Zhang, Yang & Wang, Yang & Du, Haifeng & Havlin, Shlomo, 2024. "Delayed citation impact of interdisciplinary research," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1).
    20. Lu Liu & Benjamin F. Jones & Brian Uzzi & Dashun Wang, 2023. "Data, measurement and empirical methods in the science of science," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 1046-1058, July.

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