IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/bmh888/v3y2015i1p13-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Economic Variables on Exchange Rate, Modeling and Forecasting: Case of Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mehdi Pedram
  • Maryam Ebrahimi

Abstract

This paper investigates the model estimation and data forecasting of exchange rate using artificial neural network. Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the neural networks. It has been demonstrated that a neural network can approximate any continuous function. In this research, ANN is employed in training and learning processes and after modeling, the forecast performance is measured by making use of a loss function (RMSE). By sensitivity analysis, the importance and the weight of each economic variable on exchange rate such as consumer price index, old price, oil price and total value of export and import have been determined. The results show that Iran consumer price index is the most effective factor on exchange rate trend. In addition to, it is possible to estimate a model to forecast the value of exchange rate even by having access to a limited subset of data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Pedram & Maryam Ebrahimi, 2015. "The Effects of Economic Variables on Exchange Rate, Modeling and Forecasting: Case of Iran," Business and Management Horizons, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 13-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:bmh888:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:13-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bmh/article/view/7675/6294
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bmh/article/view/7675
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sermpinis, Georgios & Theofilatos, Konstantinos & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Georgopoulos, Efstratios F. & Dunis, Christian, 2013. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial-basis functions and Particle Swarm Optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(3), pages 528-540.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Jozmaleki, Mehrdad & Valipour, Mahsa, 2018. "Integrating dynamic fuzzy C-means, data envelopment analysis and artificial neural network to online prediction performance of companies in stock exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 78-93.
    2. Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2019. "A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 49-58.
    3. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    4. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2017. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Flori, Andrea & Regoli, Daniele, 2021. "Revealing Pairs-trading opportunities with long short-term memory networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 772-791.
    6. He, Kaijian & Chen, Yanhui & Tso, Geoffrey K.F., 2018. "Forecasting exchange rate using Variational Mode Decomposition and entropy theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 15-25.
    7. Rubesam, Alexandre, 2022. "Machine learning portfolios with equal risk contributions: Evidence from the Brazilian market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    8. Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu & Lyuyuan Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting Inflection Points: Hybrid Methods with Multiscale Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 537-575, February.
    9. Kwon, He-Boong, 2017. "Exploring the predictive potential of artificial neural networks in conjunction with DEA in railroad performance modeling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 159-170.
    10. Chen, Yan & Wang, Xuancheng, 2015. "A hybrid stock trading system using genetic network programming and mean conditional value-at-risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(3), pages 861-871.
    11. Miriyala, Srinivas Soumitri & Subramanian, Venkat & Mitra, Kishalay, 2018. "TRANSFORM-ANN for online optimization of complex industrial processes: Casting process as case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 294-309.
    12. Fu, Sibao & Li, Yongwu & Sun, Shaolong & Li, Hongtao, 2019. "Evolutionary support vector machine for RMB exchange rate forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 692-704.
    13. Kizilaslan, Recep & Freund, Steven & Iseri, Ali, 2016. "A data analytic approach to forecasting daily stock returns in an emerging marketAuthor-Name: Oztekin, Asil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 697-710.
    14. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine H., 2013. "Patterns in stock market movements tested as random number generators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 122-132.
    15. Krauss, Christopher & Do, Xuan Anh & Huck, Nicolas, 2017. "Deep neural networks, gradient-boosted trees, random forests: Statistical arbitrage on the S&P 500," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(2), pages 689-702.
    16. Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2016. "Modelling and trading the English stock market with novelty optimization techniques," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 50-57.
    17. Feuerriegel, Stefan & Gordon, Julius, 2019. "News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: A semantic path model for interpretable predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 162-175.
    18. Leandro Maciel & Rosangela Ballini, 2021. "Functional Fuzzy Rule-Based Modeling for Interval-Valued Data: An Empirical Application for Exchange Rates Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 743-771, February.
    19. Choe, Geon Ho & Choi, So Eun & Jang, Hyun Jin, 2020. "Assessment of time-varying systemic risk in credit default swap indices: Simultaneity and contagiousness," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Sang Il Lee & Seong Joon Yoo, 2017. "Threshold-Based Portfolio: The Role of the Threshold and Its Applications," Papers 1709.09822, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:bmh888:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:13-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bmh .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.