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Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry

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Author Info
Ramsey, James B
Rothman, Philip

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Abstract

The problem of business-cycle symmetry is addressed within the context of time reversibility. To this effect, the authors introduce a time domain test of time reversibility, the TR test. In an application, they show that time irreversibility is the rule rather than the exception for two well-known representative macroeconomic data sets. This shows that many components of the business cycle have asymmetric fluctuations. The characterization of asymmetry provided by the TR test shows that many series exhibit steepness asymmetry. A few series appear to be either deep or sharp. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 28 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-21
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:28:y:1996:i:1:p:1-21

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  1. Hussey, Robert, 1992. "Nonparametric evidence on asymmetry in business cycles using aggregate employment time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 217-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tsiddon, Daniel, 1991. "On the Stubbornness of Sticky Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 69-75, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Allan D. Brunner, 1990. "Conditional asymmetries in real GNP: a semi-nonparametric approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  4. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-19, January.
  6. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers 88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1991. "State-Dependent Pricing and the Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 683-708, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bertola, G. & Caballero, R.J., 1990. "Kinked Adjustment Costs And Aggregate Dynamics," Discussion Papers 1990_20, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
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  15. Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  16. Michael D. Boldin, 1990. "Characterizing business cycles with a Markov switching model: evidence of multiple equilibria," Research Paper 9037, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Philip Rothman, . "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
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  18. Ramsey, James B. & Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Characterization Of The Time Irreversibility Of Economic Time Series: Estimators And Test Statistics," Working Papers 88-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  19. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. repec:nys:sunysb:91-06 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Blatt, John Markus, 1980. "On the Frisch Model of Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 467-79, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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