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A brexit közbenső állapota
[The interim phase of Brexit]

Author

Listed:
  • Török, Ádám

Abstract

Volt egyszer egy kvantumelméleti gondolatkísérlet, amely a "sem élő, sem holt" jellegű átmeneti állapotok megjelenítéséhez, a filozófiai érdeklődésűek számára pedig a bennük való metafizikai elmélyedéshez adott szemléletes eszközt. Ezt a gondolatkísérletet ma Erwin Schrödinger macskamodelljeként ismerjük. Ez a tanulmány a brexit elemzéséhez próbál kiindulni a macskamodellből. A brexit folyamata megkezdődött ugyan a 2016. júniusi brit népszavazással, jogi értelemben azonban valójában még nem is létezik. 2016 őszén ugyan várható, hogy a brit kormány 2017-ben elindítja majd a kiválás folyamatát, korántsem biztos azonban, hogy ezt a folyamatot belátható időn belül le is lehet zárni. Többek között azért, mert nem látható olyan kereskedelempolitikai modell, amely mindkét felet kielégítené. Például nem látszik kivitelezhetőnek, hogy az Egyesült Királyság az egységes európai piac keretei között maradna, az EU viszont elérné a munkaerőpiac nyitottságának megtartását. A két fél kompromisszumos stratégiája könnyen a halogatás lehet: folyamatosan hangsúlyozhatnák, hogy a brexit megkezdődött, miközben fenntartják az integráció 2016 előtti állapotát. Így pedig évekig fennmaradhatna a 2016-ban egyelőre megfigyelhető átmeneti macskaszituáció. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F13, F15.

Suggested Citation

  • Török, Ádám, 2017. "A brexit közbenső állapota [The interim phase of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1670
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2017.1.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ottaviano, G.I.P. & Pessoa, João Paulo & Sampson, Thomas & Van Reenen, John, 2014. "Brexit or Fixit? The trade and welfare effects of leaving the European union," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57958, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Sanne Zwart, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision," OECD Economic Policy Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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