IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A stabilizáció hatása az árak és a termelés közötti összefüggésekre
[The impact of stabilisation on the interrelations between prices and production]

Author

Listed:
  • Vincze, János

Abstract

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy volt-e valami különös a termelés-felhasználás és az árak alakulásában 1995 márciusa után. Miért ugrott meg az infláció 1995-ben, miközben a termelés növekedése lelassult, és a belföldi kereslet visszaesett? Vajon a növekedés további lassulásához - sőt időszakos visszaeséséhez - képest kicsi volt-e az 1996-os dezinfláció? Általánosabban azt is mondhatnánk, hogy a kérdés a sacrifice ratio nagyságára és aszimmetrikus természetére vonatkozik: miért kell olyan "nagy" recesszió egységnyi dezinflációhoz, miközben az infláció felgyorsulása nem jár jelentős outputnövekedéssel (lásd Dornbusch-Fischer [1993]). A magyar stabilizáció, amely egy gyorsuló inflációs periódusból - amikor a fizetési mérleg stabilizálódott - és egy csökkenő inflációs periódusból áll, nem jól osztályozható makroökonómiai történet. A gazdaságot ért beavatkozások és ezek hatásai (a nagy egyszeri leértékelést követő, fokozatosan csökkenő ütemű leértékelés, a költségvetési kiigazítás, a reálbércsökkenést eredményező jövedelempolitika, a külföldi tőkebeáramlás) pozitív és negatív kínálati és keresleti sokkoknak bonyolult kombinációja. Az sem egyértelmű, hogy valóban fennállt-e a felvetett kérdések mögött húzódó jelenség, mivel kérdéses az, hogy mit tekintünk "normális" kapcsolatnak az infláció üteme és a termelés változása között.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincze, János, 1997. "A stabilizáció hatása az árak és a termelés közötti összefüggésekre [The impact of stabilisation on the interrelations between prices and production]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 273-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=165
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    2. Mr. Thierry Pujol & Mr. Mark E Griffiths, 1996. "Moderate Inflation in Poland: A Real Story," IMF Working Papers 1996/057, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antal, László, 1998. "A kiigazítás - ahogy én látom [The adjustment - as I see it]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 97-122.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henry, Peter B., 2000. "Is Disinflation Good for Growth?," Research Papers 1657, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    2. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1999. "Dollars for Sale: Exchange Rate Policy and Inflation in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1843-1859, October.
    3. Vittorio Corbo & Stanley Fischer, "undated". "Lessons from the Chilean Stabilization and Recovery," Documentos de Trabajo 158, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    5. Mondino, Guillermo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Tommasi, Mariano, 1996. "Recurrent High Inflation and Stabilization: A Dynamic Game," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(4), pages 981-996, November.
    6. Andong Zhu & Robert Pollin, 2005. "Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis," Working Papers wp109, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Carvalho, 2010. "Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time‐Dependent Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 799-831, August.
    8. Corbo, Vittorio & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Structural adjustment, stabilization and policy reform: Domestic and international finance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2845-2924, Elsevier.
    9. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan, 1999. "The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 230, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    11. Ben Bernanke & Frederic Mishkin, 1992. "Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations from Six Industrialized Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 183-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Raimundo Soto & Bassem Kamar, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance in Resource Dependent Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 462, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    13. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1998. "Managing capital flows in Poland, 1995‐98," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 389-396, November.
    14. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Carvalho, Carlos Viana de, 2003. "Endogenous time-dependent rules and the costs of disinflation with imperfect credibility," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 505, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    15. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Javier Cossío Medinacelli & Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas & Dennise Martin Alarcón & Pablo Mendieta Ossio & Raúl Mendoza Patiño & Martín Palmero Pantoja & Hugo Rodríguez Gonzales, 2008. "La inflación y políticas del Banco Central de Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 73-109, December.
    17. Martin Raiser, 1995. "“Transition is a bridge, therefore do not dwell upon it”1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(2), pages 215-246, June.
    18. Cordeiro, Jose Luis, 2008. "Monetary Systems in Developing Countries: An Unorthodox View," IDE Discussion Papers 154, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    19. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    20. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 275-301, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.