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A magyar nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatóságáról
[On the sustainability of the Hungarian pension system - the long-term effects of demographic trends]

Author

Listed:
  • Vékás, Péter
  • Bajkó, Attila
  • Maknics, Anita
  • Tóth, Krisztián

Abstract

Sok más fejlett országhoz hasonlóan Magyarországnak is szembe kell néznie az öregedő társadalom miatti problémák sokaságával, többek között a nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatóságának kérdésével. Tanulmányunkban a Lee-Carter-modell segítségével elemezzük a következő évtizedek statisztikai alapon várható demográfiai mutatóit. A kapott eredmények felhasználásával egy nyugdíjmodellt állítottunk fel, amellyel adott makrogazdasági feltételek mellett becsüljük a nyugdíjrendszer egyenlegének jövőbeli alakulását. E modell segítségével vizsgálhatóvá válik, hogy milyen hatást gyakorolnak a nyugdíjrendszerre az előre jelzett jövőbeli népességi mutatók és feltételezett makrogazdasági és nyugdíjparaméterek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C53, C54, H55.

Suggested Citation

  • Vékás, Péter & Bajkó, Attila & Maknics, Anita & Tóth, Krisztián, 2015. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatóságáról [On the sustainability of the Hungarian pension system - the long-term effects of demographic trends]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1229-1257.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1598
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.12.1229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katja Hanewald, 2009. "Mortality modeling: Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
    3. Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    4. Varga, Gergely, 2014. "Demográfiai átmenet, gazdasági növekedés és a nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatósága [Demographic transition, economic growth, and sustainability of the pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1279-1318.
    5. Orbán, Gábor & Palotai, Dániel, 2006. "Gazdaságpolitikai és demográfiai kihívások a magyar nyugdíjrendszerben [The Hungarian pension system: economic-policy and demographic challenges]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 583-603.
    6. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simonovits, András, 2017. "Az elfelejtett nyugdíjdegresszió [The forgotten pension degression]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 650-660.
    2. László, Csaba, 2018. "A magánnyugdíjpénztári rendszer "elszámolása" ["Reckoning up" the private pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 861-902.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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