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Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója
[Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of differences between them]

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  • Faragó, Miklós

Abstract

Bemutatjuk a többállapotú periódustermékenységi tábla módszerét, és ezt alkalmazva a magyar születési rátákra, először számítjuk ki a magyar népesség kor- és paritásfüggő teljes termékenységi arányszámait - visszamenőleg az elmúlt 40 évre. A számítás döntő jelentőségű részletekkel is szolgál: azt is megadja, hogy az anya egyes korévei és paritásai hány gyermekkel járulnak hozzá a teljes termékenységi arányszámhoz. Ezzel a várható gyermekszámon túl előáll egy családban a gyermekek számának kor és paritás szerinti várható megoszlása, ami már lehetővé teszi a termékenység alakulásának dinamikai vizsgálatát. A módszerrel előállíthatók más mutatók is, ilyen például az anyák átlagos életkora születési sorszám szerint vagy a születések közötti várható időintervallum. A tanulmány második részében dekompozíciós eljárást alkalmazva, kor- és paritásfüggő teljes termékenységi arányszámbeli összehasonlításokat végzünk a jelen és különböző múltbeli időpontok, valamint az egyes régiók magyar népességei között, továbbá nemzetközi egybevetéseket is teszünk. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: J13, C49.

Suggested Citation

  • Faragó, Miklós, 2011. "Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója [Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of differences between them," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 970-993.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1277
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Alexander Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, healthy life expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rat," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(14), pages 499-522.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    3. Tomas Frejka & Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(3), pages 15-46.
    4. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total ," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Maria Rita Testa & Vegard Skirbekk & Wolfgang Lutz, 2006. "The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 167-192.
    6. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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