IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v60y2023i1d10.1007_s11156-022-01094-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do investors infer future cash flow volatility based on liquidity?

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Angelo

    (Ball State University)

  • Mitchell Johnston

    (University of Dayton)

Abstract

Prior literature has studied the relationship between historic cash flow volatility and current levels of liquidity (Bates et al. in J Financ 64:1985–2021, 2009; Han and Qiu in J Corp Financ 13:43–57, 2007). In this paper, we study the relationship between liquidity and future returns. When investors observe a highly liquid balance sheet, they infer the firm’s beliefs about the risk of future cash flow volatility and price the stock accordingly. Our measure of liquidity is negatively and significantly associated with subsequent period stock returns. More liquid firms earn significantly higher levels of returns over the subsequent period, consistent with investor perceptions that liquidity is positively associated with future cash flow risk. We also find that firms with highly liquid balance sheets also realize significantly higher levels of future cash flow volatility, consistent with precautionary savings. This represents one possible explanation for why investors perceive more liquid firms as riskier than their less liquid counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Angelo & Mitchell Johnston, 2023. "Do investors infer future cash flow volatility based on liquidity?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 259-294, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:60:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-022-01094-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-022-01094-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-022-01094-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-022-01094-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gopalan, Radhakrishnan & Kadan, Ohad & Pevzner, Mikhail, 2012. "Asset Liquidity and Stock Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 333-364, April.
    2. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
    3. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    4. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. Han, Seungjin & Qiu, Jiaping, 2007. "Corporate precautionary cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-57, March.
    8. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    9. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    11. Eliza Xia Zhang, 2020. "The impact of cash flow management versus accruals management on credit rating performance and usage," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1193, May.
    12. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, K. C. John & Xie, Feixue, 2004. "Capital Investments and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 677-700, December.
    13. Fritz Foley, C. & Hartzell, Jay C. & Titman, Sheridan & Twite, Garry, 2007. "Why do firms hold so much cash? A tax-based explanation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 579-607, December.
    14. Ortiz-Molina, Hernán & Phillips, Gordon M., 2014. "Real Asset Illiquidity and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-32, February.
    15. Jiaxing You & Ling Lin & Juanjuan Huang & Min Xiao, 2020. "When is cash king? International evidence on the value of cash across the business cycle," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1101-1131, April.
    16. Bai-Sian Chen & Hong-Yi Chen & Hsiao-Yin Chen & Fang-Chi Lin, 2022. "Corporate growth and strategic payout policy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 641-669, August.
    17. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    19. Jose Miranda-Lopez & Svetlana Orlova & Li Sun, 2019. "CEO network centrality and corporate cash holdings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 967-1003, November.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    22. Nguyet T. M. Nguyen & Abdullah Iqbal & Radha K. Shiwakoti, 2022. "The context of earnings management and its ability to predict future stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 123-169, July.
    23. Tim Adam & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2008. "The Investment Opportunity Set And Its Proxy Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(1), pages 41-63, March.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    25. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    2. Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Mispricing Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1270-1315.
    3. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Lin Sun, 2020. "Short- and Long-Horizon Behavioral Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1673-1736.
    4. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    5. Wang, Baolian, 2019. "The cash conversion cycle spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 472-497.
    6. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    7. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    8. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.
    9. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang & Christian Julliard, 2023. "Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 487-557, February.
    10. Bali, Turan G. & Weigert, Florian, 2021. "Hedge funds and the positive idiosyncratic volatility effect," CFR Working Papers 21-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    11. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    12. Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Michael R. Roberts, 2016. "The History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 22894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xiaomeng Lu & Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Anomalies Abroad: Beyond Data Mining," NBER Working Papers 23809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lauterbach, Jochim G., 2019. "The cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 265-286.
    15. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2019. "Which Factors?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-35.
    16. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    17. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2022. "The Distress Anomaly is Deeper than You Think: Evidence from Stocks and Bonds [The prediction of corporate bankruptcy: a discriminant analysis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 355-405.
    18. Turan G. Bali & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Have Hedge Funds Solved the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle?," Working Papers on Finance 1827, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    19. Cao, Ji & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Zhao, Lei, 2023. "Safety first, loss probability, and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 345-369.
    20. Hiroki, Takashi & Iwatsubo, Kentaro & Watkins, Clinton, 2022. "Does firm-level productivity predict stock returns?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset liquidity; Balance sheet asset liquidity; Cash flow volatility; Precautionary savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:60:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-022-01094-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.