IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/netnom/v13y2012i1p45-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Information theoretics-based technoeconomic forecasting: application to telecommunication service industry

Author

Listed:
  • Perambur Neelakanta
  • Raef Yassin

Abstract

Addressed in this paper is an information-theoretics inspired econometric approach to evolve a forecast model on the growth profiles of telecommunication services. It includes cohesively, both the profile of user-economics as well as the technological framework of service providers; and the forecasting suite is built on the basis of information-theoretics considerations. It refers to a modified Fisher-Kaysen method that accounts for “free-market” principles and uses entropy (stochastic) details of differential changes in the short-run (state) variables of the growth function. Further, the principle of proportional fairness is appropriately invoked and the heuristics of users’ willingness-to-pay for the network resources allocated to them is presumed. A few simulation examples using real-world data are furnished to validate the forecast algorithm developed. The computed results on forecasting presented depict a “cone-of-forecast” in the ex ante regime of the examples considered. Relevance of this method to modern aspects of managerial approach and market penetration vis-à-vis forecast trends is indicated. Shortcomings of the method are identified. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Perambur Neelakanta & Raef Yassin, 2012. "Information theoretics-based technoeconomic forecasting: application to telecommunication service industry," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 45-78, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netnom:v:13:y:2012:i:1:p:45-78
    DOI: 10.1007/s11066-012-9071-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11066-012-9071-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11066-012-9071-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grubesic, Tony H. & Murray, Alan T., 2005. "Geographies of imperfection in telecommunication analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-94, February.
    2. Schoder, Detlef, 2000. "Forecasting the success of telecommunication services in the presence of network effects," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 181-200, June.
    3. Perambur S. Neelakanta & Daniel M. Baeza, 2002. "Arbitrated Sharing of Traffic in Telecommunication Networks: Technoeconomical Considerations," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 105-129, November.
    4. Perambur Neelakanta & Angela Perez & Daniel Baeza, 2008. "An ex ante forecast on economically engineered bit rates for IPTV service via xDSL transports of internodal access," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 21-46, January.
    5. Perambur Neelakanta & Renata Sardenberg, 2011. "Consumer benefit versus price elasticity of demand: a nonlinear complex system model of pricing internet services on QoS-centric architecture," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 31-60, April.
    6. Madden, Gary & Tan, Joachim, 2007. "Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 31-44, February.
    7. Robert C. Merton, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(3), pages 375-393.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shagun Srivastava & Madhvendra Misra, 2014. "Developing Evaluation Matrix for Critical Success Factors in Technology Forecasting," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 363-380, June.
    2. Auffret, Philippe, 2001. "An alternative unifying measure of welfare gains from risk-sharing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2676, The World Bank.
    3. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    4. Madden, Gary & Tan, Joachim, 2007. "Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 31-44, February.
    5. Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA & Mamata PARHI, 2015. "A "Jump" in the Stochasticity of the Solow-Swan Growth Model," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 50, pages 905-917, Juin.
    6. Raouf Boucekkine & Patrick Pintus & Benteng Zou, 2015. "Stochastic Stability of Endogenous Growth: Theory and Applications," AMSE Working Papers 1532, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Navarrete, Eduardo, 2012. "Modeling optimal pine stands harvest under stochastic wood stock and price in Chile," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 54-59.
    8. Alexis Derviz, 2020. "Sovereign Capital, External Balance, and the Investment-Based Balassa-Samuelson Effect in a Global Dynamic Equilibrium," Working Papers 2020/4, Czech National Bank.
    9. Yulei Luo & William T. Smith & Heng-fu Zou, 2009. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Excess Smoothness," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 281-301, November.
    10. Frey, Miriam, 2014. "Assessing the Impact of a Carbon Tax in Ukraine," Conference papers 332556, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Md. Azizul Baten & Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, 2013. "Optimal Consumption in a Stochastic Ramsey Model with Cobb-Douglas Production Function," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-8, March.
    12. Bayer, Christian & Rendall, Alan D. & Wälde, Klaus, 2019. "The invariant distribution of wealth and employment status in a small open economy with precautionary savings," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 17-37.
    13. Dai, Darong, 2012. "A Robust Turnpike Deduced by Economic Maturity," MPRA Paper 48818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Jun Wen & Hadi Hussain & Renai Jiang & Junaid Waheed, 2023. "Overcoming the Digital Divide With ICT Diffusion: Multivariate and Spatial Analysis at China’s Provincial Level," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, March.
    16. Perambur S. Neelakanta & Aziz U. Noori, 2021. "Techno-economic price-worthiness of mobile networks: a hedonic heuristic perspective," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 85-113, December.
    17. Darong Dai, 2015. "Robust Turnpikes Deduced by the Minimum-Time Needed toward Economic Maturity," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 049-073, October.
    18. Barman, Hemanta & Dutta, Mrinal Kanti & Nath, Hiranya K., 2018. "The telecommunications divide among Indian states," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 530-551.
    19. Igor Halperin & Matthew Dixon, 2018. ""Quantum Equilibrium-Disequilibrium": Asset Price Dynamics, Symmetry Breaking, and Defaults as Dissipative Instantons," Papers 1808.03607, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    20. Raouf Boucekkine & Fabien Prieur & Benteng Zou, 2015. "Institutional dynamics under revenue volatility and revenue-dependent lobbying power: A stochastic differential game approach," DEM Discussion Paper Series 15-08, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:netnom:v:13:y:2012:i:1:p:45-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.