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Probabilistic Insurance

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Author Info
Wakker, Peter P
Thaler, Richard H
Tversky, Amos

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Abstract

Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic insurance should be very close to willingness to pay for standard insurance less the default risk. However, the reluctance to buy probabilistic insurance is predicted by the weighting function of prospect theory. This finding highlights the potential role of the weighting function to explain insurance. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 7-28
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:7-28

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  1. Mark J. Machina, 2000. "Payoff Kinks in Preferences over Lotteries," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2000-22, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olivier Armantier & Nicolas Treich, 2006. "Overbidding in Independant Private-Values Auctions and Misperception of Probabilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-15, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Booij, Adam S. & van Praag, Bernard M. S. & van de Kuilen, Gijs, 2009. "A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population," IZA Discussion Papers 4117, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Floris Heukelom, 2007. "Who are the Behavioral Economists and what do they say?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-020/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Zur Shapira & Itzhak Venezia, 2007. "On the Preference for Full-Coverage Policies: Why do People buy too much Insurance?," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001505, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Matthew Ryan & Rhema Vaithianathan, 2003. "Adverse Selection and Insurance Contracting: A Rank-Dependent Utility Analysis," Contributions to Theoretical Economics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1074-1074. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kenneth A. Froot, 2003. "Risk Management, Capital Budgeting and Capital Structure Policy for Insurers and Reinsurers," NBER Working Papers 10184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Horst Zank, 2007. "On the Paradigm of Loss Aversion," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0710, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  9. Floris Heukelom, 2007. "Kahneman and Tversky and the Origin of Behavioral Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-003/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Zur Shapira & Itzhak Venezia, 2007. "On the Preference for Full-Coverage Policies: Why do People buy too much Insurance?," Discussion Paper Series dp460, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
  11. Diecidue, E. & Wakker, P.P., 2000. "Comonotonic book-making with nonadditive probabilities," Discussion Paper 76, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrea Capotorti & Giulianella Coletti & Barbara Vantaggi, 2008. "Preferences Representable by a Lower Expectation: Some Characterizations," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 119-146, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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