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An Analysis of Real-Estate Risk Using the Present Value Model

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  • Liu, Crocker H
  • Mei, Jianping

Abstract

The current study uses a present value model that allows for a time-varying expected discount rate in conjunction with a VAR process to decompose real estate risk. The study finds that the variance of unexpected returns accounts for most of the total risk with cash-flow risk accounting for twice as much of the unexplained real estate risk, although discount rate risk is also an important factor. This dominance of cash-flow risk is found to result in a weaker mean reversion process for real estate relative to stocks. Another finding is that real estate investors tend to become apprehensive about the future when news on future cash flow is good, and thus they demand higher expected future returns. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1994. "An Analysis of Real-Estate Risk Using the Present Value Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:8:y:1994:i:1:p:5-20
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmelo Giaccotto & Erasmo Giambona & Yanhui Zhao, 2021. "Short-Term and Long-Term Discount Rates For Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 493-524, October.
    2. Patric Hendershott & Robert J. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2005. "Evidence on Rationality in Commercial Property Markets: An Interpretation and Critique," NBER Working Papers 11329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2002. "Relationships between Australian Real Estate and Stock Market Prices--A Case of Market Inefficiency," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 181-192, April.
    4. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.
    6. John Gallo & Ying Zhang, 2010. "Global Property Market Diversification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 458-485, November.
    7. Wei, Peihwang & Yang, Xiaolou, 2012. "Do investors value REITs and Non-REITs differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 295-302.
    8. Christian Rehring & Steffen Sebastian, 2011. "Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 291-315, June.
    9. James Doran & David Peterson & S. Price, 2012. "Earnings Conference Call Content and Stock Price: The Case of REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 402-434, August.

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