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Regional tests of Okun's law

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  • Donald Freeman

Abstract

"Okun's law" describes an enduring empirical observation first made by Arthur Okun, relating departures from the natural rate of unemployment to changes in real output. This paper employs a recent development in trend-cycle decomposition of economic time series to measure the Okun coefficient using U.S. national and regional data. The key finding of this paper is that the value of the coefficient measuring the change in real output per unit of change in the unemployment rate, both measured as departures from equilibrium, is stable at a value of about 2 for all time periods and across regions of the U.S., irrespective of the method used to measure equilibrium output and employment. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2000

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  • Donald Freeman, 2000. "Regional tests of Okun's law," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(3), pages 557-570, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:6:y:2000:i:3:p:557-570:10.1007/bf02294972
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02294972
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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    3. M. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 21-34, May.
    4. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    5. Goto, Eiji & Bürgi, Constantin, 2021. "Sectoral Okun's law and cross-country cyclical differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 91-103.
    6. Gina Cristina Dimian & Liviu Stelian Begu & Josef Jablonsky, 2017. "Unemployment and labour market mismatch in the European Union Countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 13-44.
    7. Binet Marie-estelle & Francois Facchini, 2013. "Okun's law in the french regions: a cross-regional comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 420-433.
    8. Buendía Azorín, José Daniel & Sánchez de la Vega, María del Mar, 2017. "Output growth thresholds for the creation of employment and the reduction of unemployment: A spatial analysis with panel data from the Spanish provinces, 2000–2011," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-49.
    9. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2023. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 5-39, January.
    10. Afşin Şahin & Aysit Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2015. "Output–Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 265-288, July.
    11. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Mutascu, Mihai & Sokic, Alexandre, 2021. "Okun's law in the US: New insights in time and frequency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    13. Lal, Irfan & Mohammad, Sulaiman D. & Hussain, Adnan & Jalil, Anwar, 2012. "Test of Okun’s Law in Some Asian Countries Co-Integration Approach," MPRA Paper 106934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    15. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.
    16. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Arabinda Basistha & Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic, 2017. "The role of spatial GDP spillovers in state-level Okun’s law," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 353-360, October.
    18. Augustine C Osigwe & Kenneth O Ahamba, 2016. "Macroeconomic conditions and unemployment in Nigeria," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(6), pages 21-28, December.
    19. Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.

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