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Forecasting Home Sales in the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy Using Singular Spectrum Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Hassani

    (International Institute for Energy Studies (IIES))

  • Zara Ghodsi

    (Bournemouth University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Mawuli Segnon

    (Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel)

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of home sales can provide valuable information for not only, policy makers, but also financial institutions and real estate professionals. Given this, our analysis compares the ability of two different versions of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) methods, namely recurrent SSA (RSSA) and vector SSA (VSSA), in univariate (UV) and multivariate (MV) frameworks, in forecasting seasonally unadjusted home sales for the aggregate US economy and its four census regions (Northeast, Midwest, South and West). We compare the performance of the SSA-based models with classical and Bayesian variants of the autoregressive (AR) and vector AR models. Using an out-of-sample period of 1979:8–2014:6, given an in-sample period of 1973:1–1979:7, we find that the UVVSSA is the best performing model for the aggregate US home sales, while the MV versions of the RSSA is the outright favorite in forecasting home sales for all the four census regions. Our results highlight the superiority of the nonparametric approach of the SSA, which in turn, allows us to handle any statistical process: linear or nonlinear, stationary or non-stationary, Gaussian or non-Gaussian.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Hassani & Zara Ghodsi & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli Segnon, 2017. "Forecasting Home Sales in the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy Using Singular Spectrum Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 83-97, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:49:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-015-9548-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-015-9548-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "The role of real estate uncertainty in predicting US home sales growth: evidence from a quantiles-based Bayesian model averaging approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 528-536, January.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Vasilios Plakandaras & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "The role of housing sentiment in forecasting U.S. home sales growth: evidence from a Bayesian compressed vector autoregressive model," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2554-2567, January.
    3. Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Hossein Hassani & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "The ENSO cycle and forecastability of global inflation and output growth: Evidence from standard and mixed‐frequency multivariate singular spectrum analyses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1690-1707, November.
    4. Moro Matheus Fernando & Weise Andreas Dittmar & Bornia Antonio Cezar, 2020. "Model Hybrid for Sales Forecast for the Housing Market of São Paulo," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(3), pages 45-64, September.
    5. MeiChi Huang, 2019. "A Nationwide or Localized Housing Crisis? Evidence from Structural Instability in US Housing Price and Volume Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1547-1563, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Home sales; Forecasting; Singular spectrum analysis; Classical and Bayesian (vector) autoregressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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