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The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts

Author

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Tapas Mishra

Abstract

This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross‐country data of 65 countries over six 5‐year periods (1970–2000) and consider specifications chosen by model selection criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in‐sample and out‐of‐sample goodness of fit and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts systematically. In particular, the results are very promising for improving economic growth predictions in developing countries. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tapas Mishra, 2011. "The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 249-267, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:249-267
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1171
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz, 2015. "The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 13(1), pages 241-262.
    2. Arabsheibani, Gholamreza & Gupta, Prashant & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata, 2018. "Wage differential between caste groups: Are younger and older cohorts different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 10-23.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Petra Sauer & Samir K.C., 2013. "Age-specific Education Inequality, Education Mobility and Income Growth. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 6," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46850, February.
    5. Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, February.
    6. Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Raúl Fuentes, 2015. "How Interdependent are Cross-Country Happiness Dynamics?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 491-518, June.

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