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Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994

Author

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  • Heilemann Ullrich

    (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Hohenzollernstr. 1-3, D-45128 Essen, and Gerhard-Mercator-Universität Duisburg, Lotharstraße 65, D-47057 Duisburg.)

  • Münch Heinz Josef

    (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Hohenzollernstr. 1 - 3 , D-45128 Essen.)

Abstract

This paper applies multivariate linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and presents classification results for various sample periods confirming the four phase scheme. Special attention is given to changes of the explanatory power of the variables and its implication for changes of cycle patterns. While for the 1963/94 period the results display all in all much stability, the 1955/62 period does not fit into this pattern, indicating a change of regime which might even reach into the fourth cycle (1963-1967).

Suggested Citation

  • Heilemann Ullrich & Münch Heinz Josef, 1999. "Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(5-6), pages 632-656, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:219:y:1999:i:5-6:p:632-656
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    Cited by:

    1. Pumplün, Constanze & Weihs, Claus & Preusser, Andrea, 2004. "Experimental Design for Variable Selection in data bases," Technical Reports 2004,72, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    2. Ulrich FRITSCHE & Vladimir KOUZINE, 2010. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," EcoMod2004 330600054, EcoMod.

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