IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v68y2020i1p93-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Leveraging–Deleveraging Games

Author

Listed:
  • Andreea Minca

    (School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850)

  • Johannes Wissel

    (School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850)

Abstract

We introduce a new mechanism for leverage dynamics, based on a multiperiod game of lenders with differentiated beliefs about the firm’s fundamental returns. The game features strategic substitutability for low existing leverage and strategic complementarity for high existing leverage. The resulting leverage process exhibits a mean-reverting regime around a long-run level, as long as it stays below an instability level. Above the instability level, leverage becomes explosive. We validate our model empirically using aggregate returns of financial firms over the 10-year period 2001–2010. Our model is consistent with the leveraging/deleveraging of this period and with the 2008 collapse in short-term debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreea Minca & Johannes Wissel, 2020. "Dynamic Leveraging–Deleveraging Games," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 93-114, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:68:y:2020:i:1:p:93-114
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2019.1865
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1865
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2019.1865?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    2. Andrey Krishenik & Andreea Minca & Johannes Wissel, 2015. "When do creditors with heterogeneous beliefs agree to run?," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 233-259, April.
    3. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    4. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1996. "Coalition-Proofness and Correlation with Arbitrary Communication Possibilities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-128, November.
    5. Marcin Kacperczyk & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "When Safe Proved Risky: Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
    6. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2014. "Endogenous Collateral Constraints and the Leverage Cycle," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 771-799, August.
    7. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    8. Rene Carmona & Francois Delarue & Daniel Lacker, 2016. "Mean field games of timing and models for bank runs," Papers 1606.03709, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    9. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    10. Xue-Zhong He & Eva Lütkebohmert & Yajun Xiao, 2017. "Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 455-469, March.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron & Rogoff, Kenneth & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2010. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226002095, July.
    12. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2001.
    13. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2013. "The Maturity Rat Race," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 483-521, April.
    14. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    16. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    17. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    18. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "Dynamic Debt Maturity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2677-2736.
    19. Bernheim, B. Douglas & Peleg, Bezalel & Whinston, Michael D., 1987. "Coalition-Proof Nash Equilibria I. Concepts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-12, June.
    20. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    22. Hart, Oliver & Moore, John, 1995. "Debt and Seniority: An Analysis of the Role of Hard Claims in Constraining Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 567-585, June.
    23. Gechun Liang & Eva Lutkebohmert & Wei Wei, 2012. "Funding Liquidity, Debt Tenor Structure, and Creditor's Belief: An Exogenous Dynamic Debt Run Model," Papers 1209.3513, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ariah Klages‐Mundt & Andreea Minca, 2022. "While stability lasts: A stochastic model of noncustodial stablecoins," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 943-981, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrey Krishenik & Andreea Minca & Johannes Wissel, 2015. "When do creditors with heterogeneous beliefs agree to run?," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 233-259, April.
    2. Eisenbach, Thomas M., 2017. "Rollover risk as market discipline: A two-sided inefficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 252-269.
    3. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    4. Emanuele Brancati & Marco Macchiavelli, 2020. "Endogenous debt maturity and rollover risk," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 69-90, March.
    5. Gregory Phelan, 2017. "Collateralized borrowing and increasing risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 471-502, February.
    6. Aloísio Araújo & Susan Schommer & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy with Endogenous Collateral Constraints," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-43, January.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft & Hayley Boesky & Zoltan Pozsar, 2013. "Shadow banking," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-16.
      • Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft & Hayley Boesky & Zoltan Pozsar, 2010. "Shadow banking," Staff Reports 458, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    10. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    11. Eva Lütkebohmert & Daniel Oeltz & Yajun Xiao, 2017. "Endogenous Credit Spreads and Optimal Debt Financing Structure in the Presence of Liquidity Risk," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 55-86, January.
    12. Chen, Ren-Raw & Chidambaran, N.K. & Imerman, Michael B. & Sopranzetti, Ben J., 2014. "Liquidity, leverage, and Lehman: A structural analysis of financial institutions in crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 117-139.
    13. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dirk Mevis, 2012. "The Determinants of Short Term Funding in Luxembourgish Banks," BCL working papers 80, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    15. Jun Kyung Auh & Mattia Landoni, 2022. "Loan Terms and Collateral: Evidence from the Bilateral Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 2997-3036, December.
    16. M. Iqbal Ahmed & Quazi Fidia Farah, 2021. "Adjustment dynamics between broker–dealer leverage and stock market: a threshold cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 121-144, July.
    17. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Girogos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2017. "Heterogeneity and Clustering of Defaults," Economic Research Papers 270011, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    19. Xue-Zhong He & Eva Lütkebohmert & Yajun Xiao, 2017. "Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 455-469, March.
    20. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft, 2012. "Shadow Banking Regulation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 99-140, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:68:y:2020:i:1:p:93-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.