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Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies

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Canova, Fabio

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Abstract

This paper describes a Monte Carlo procedure to evaluate dynamic nonlinear general equilibrium macro models. The procedure makes the choice of parameters and the evaluation of the model less subjective than standard calibration techniques, it provides more general restrictions than estimation by simulation approaches, and provides a way to conduct global sensitivity analysis for reasonable perturbations of the parameters. As an illustration, the technique is applied to three examples involving different models and statistics. Copyright 1995 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (1995)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 477-501
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:36:y:1995:i:2:p:477-501

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  1. Marco Percoco & Geoffrey Hewings & Lanfranco Senn, 2006. "Structural change decomposition through a global sensitivity analysis of input--output models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 115-131, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Canova, Fabio, 2008. "How much structure in empirical models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth L. Judd, 1997. "Computational Economics and Economic Theory: Substitutes or Complements," NBER Technical Working Papers 0208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Menner, 2006. "Monetary Propagation In Search-Theoretic Monetary Models," Economics Working Papers we066426, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing Calibrated General Equilibrium Models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Maffezzoli, 2000. "Human Capital and International Real Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 137-165. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: round up the usual suspects," International Finance Discussion Papers 760, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alfonso Novales, 2002. "The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0227, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
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