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Scenario-based life-cycle cost assessment of future air transport concepts

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Schmidt
  • Kay Olaf Ploetner
  • Gerald Öttl
  • Askin T. Isikveren
  • Mirko Hornung

Abstract

The aviation industry stakeholders operate in a volatile environment. Because of the long life-cycles of aircraft, the consideration of future developments is vital for the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment of aircraft concepts during the conceptual design phase. Using current LCC models, a multiplicity of assumptions about the future development manipulates the results to a varying degree. Hence, a link between scenarios, as an established method for describing possible future developments, and LCC models is necessary to determine the scenario-driven LCC parameters. In order to establish this link, the relations between the key scenario factors and scenario-driven LCC parameters were mapped out and regression equations based on historical values describe the dependencies. The resulting model allows the evaluation of aircraft concepts for a variety of future scenarios and with identifying cost drivers for different future environments, it is now possible to provide more accurate predictions about the future cost of flying.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Schmidt & Kay Olaf Ploetner & Gerald Öttl & Askin T. Isikveren & Mirko Hornung, 2015. "Scenario-based life-cycle cost assessment of future air transport concepts," International Journal of Aviation Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(3/4), pages 167-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijavim:v:2:y:2015:i:3/4:p:167-182
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