IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v15y2012i1bp3-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Kajian Indikator Peringatan Dini Bank Runs Di Indonesia: Pendekatan Markov-Switching

Author

Listed:
  • Iskandar Simorangkir

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

A run on a particular bank can lead to a banking crisis if it spreads to other banks (contagious effect). In the case of Indonesia, bank runs have also reoccurred time and again. In 1992, bank runs affected several national banks, subsequently precipitating the liquidation of one bank. Then in 1997/1998, bank runs developed into the worst banking crisis ever witnessed in the banking history of Indonesia. Considering the extent of losses attributable to bank runs and the banking crisis, extensive studies on the early warning indicators of bank runs are urgently required to prevent future bank runs and bankingcrises. This paper aims to comprehensively analyse the early warning indicators of bank runs for all banks in Indonesia, both during the sample period of 1990-2005 as well as during the banking crisis in 1997-1998. The study of early warning indicators of bank runs uses the Markov-Switching model. To calculate the transition probability from a tranquil state to a state of bank run uses the Markov-Switching process through an auto-regressive approach. The change in deposits held at each bank is used as a variable of bank runs. The results of Markov-Switching (MS) show that the MS model is robust as an early warning indicator of bank runs. This is reflected by testing, which was performed on the actual incident of 102 banks, showing that the MS model only produced false signals an estimated 0.69% - 2.08% of the time.

Suggested Citation

  • Iskandar Simorangkir, 2012. "Kajian Indikator Peringatan Dini Bank Runs Di Indonesia: Pendekatan Markov-Switching," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 15(1), pages 3-37, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:15:y:2012:i:1b:p:3-37
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v15i1.55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1285&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v15i1.55?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Runs; Early Warning Indicators; Markov-Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:15:y:2012:i:1b:p:3-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.