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Global Technology Trends Monitoring: Theoretical Frameworks and Best Practices

Author

Listed:
  • Nadezhda Mikova

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia)

  • Anna Sokolova

    (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia)

Abstract

Theoretical and applied studies about monitoring technology trends are carried out by organizations at global, national, sectoral, and corporate levels. Demand for them comes from the government, business, academic institutions, as well as the general public. Qualitative methods (expert interviews, surveys, workshops, etc.) play a significant role in large practical projects. At the same time, there is a need to validate expert assessments with quantitative methods, which involve searching for implicit signs of technological change based on analysing large volume of information. Approaches that have been developed in the framework of theoretical research are based on integrating qualitative and quantitative methods, with an emphasis on the latter. They aim to create a well-grounded methodology for identifying global technology trends, define the necessary criteria, and use automated tools for processing large amounts of data. The paper presents an analytical review of international practices for monitoring global technology trends, as well as the key theoretical approaches and methods, which have been developed in this field. Next, it analyses the purposes of technology monitoring projects, examines the types of organizations implementing them, the methodology and results of such projects; explores the key areas of theoretical research on technology monitoring, and studies the criteria for determining the trends, as well as possible classifications of them. In addition, it presents the main stages of technology monitoring, studies the methodological trajectories of this process and information sources that can be used by various researchers. Finally, the paper analyses the combinations of methods that serve as the basis for identifying different types of technology trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadezhda Mikova & Anna Sokolova, 2014. "Global Technology Trends Monitoring: Theoretical Frameworks and Best Practices," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 8(4), pages 64-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:8:y:2014:i:4:p:64-83
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ilya Kuzminov & Pavel Bakhtin & Elena Khabirova & Irina V. Loginova, 2018. "Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques," HSE Working papers WP BRP 82/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Najmeh Masoumi & Reza Khajavi, 2023. "A fuzzy classifier for evaluation of research topics by using keyword co-occurrence network and sponsors information," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(3), pages 1485-1512, March.
    3. Rinat Zhanbayev & Saule Sagintayeva & Abildina Ainur & Anton Nazarov, 2020. "The Use of the Foresight Methods in Developing an Algorithm for Conducting Qualitative Examination of the Research Activities Results on the Example of the Republic of Kazakhstan," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Pavel Bakhtin & Ozcan Saritas & Alexander Chulok & Ilya Kuzminov & Anton Timofeev, 2017. "Trend monitoring for linking science and strategy," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 2059-2075, June.
    5. Elena Nikolaevna ZAKHAROVA & Elena Evgenyevna KARDAVA & Rita Rafaelovna AVANESOVA & Elena Petrovna AVRAMENKO, 2016. "Management Of The Economic Capacity Of The Region On The Basis Of Foresight (On The Example Of Adygea, Russia)," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 45-53, June.
    6. Sergey Kortov & Dmitry Shulgin & Dmitrii Tolmachev & Anastassiya Yegarmina, 2017. "Technology Trends Analysis Using Patent Landscaping," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 935-947.
    7. Carayannis, Elias & Grebeniuk, Anna & Meissner, Dirk, 2016. "Smart roadmapping for STI policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 109-116.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    patent analysis; global technology trends monitoring; technology mining; qualitative and quantitative methods; evidence-based approach; bibliometric analysis; text mining; information overload; information sources; automated tools; foresight;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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