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Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitriy Grushevenko

    (Energy Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia))

  • Ekaterina Grushevenko

    (Energy Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia))

  • Vyacheslav Kulagin

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia))

Abstract

The development of production and consumption technologies for the road transport has led to large scale introduction of alternative energy in this sector. These alternatives to the conventional petroleum fuels include biofuels, electricity, natural gas and synthetic fuels produced from coal and natural gas. However, it is very important to point out, that inter-fuel competition is determined not only by the development of technologies, but also by such parameters as availability, fuel cost, consumer preferences and government legislations, all of which vary greatly across the globe. In other words, the very same technologies can be capable of radically altering the fuel mix in some countries while having little to none impact in the others. The topic of the inter-fuel competition development in the transportation sector holds much importance for Russia, as the country’s fuels mix is almost totally dominated by the petroleum products. The diversification of energy sources for transport may positively influence energy security and domestic fuels market stability; reduce the strain on ecology, especially in major cities; all the while increasing Russian oil and petroleum products export potential. The article presents results of the research for prospects of the developments in Russian transport sector fuel mix. The research was carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling under various scenario assumptions. The analysis has shown that natural gas and, to a lesser extent, electricity hold the best prospects as petroleum products substitutes in the long-term. Their cumulative share in the total energy consumption of the road transport sector has the potential of reaching as high as 26% by 2040. Yet, the extent of substitution largely depends on the government actions for infrastructure development and tax incentives for alternative vehicle owners.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitriy Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko & Vyacheslav Kulagin, 2018. "Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 35-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:12:y:2018:i:4:p:35-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Митрова Татьяна Алексеевна & Галкина Анна Александровна, 2013. "Межтопливная Конкуренция," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 17(3), pages 372-389.
    2. Ekaterina Grushevenko, 2015. "Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 98-107.
    3. Curran, Scott J. & Wagner, Robert M. & Graves, Ronald L. & Keller, Martin & Green, Johney B., 2014. "Well-to-wheel analysis of direct and indirect use of natural gas in passenger vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 194-203.
    4. Tatiana Mitrova & Vyacheslav Kulagin & Dmitry Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko, 2015. "Technological Innovation as a Factor of Demand for Energy Sources in Automotive Industry," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 18-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. O. V. Mazurova & E. V. Gal’perova, 2023. "Energy Consumption in Russia: Current State and Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 105-114, February.
    2. Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor & Igor Mikhailovich Drapkin, 2022. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on Energy Consumption in OECD Economies: the role of Outward Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade Openness," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 317-333, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inter-fuel competition; road transportation; technological innovations; alternative fuels; energy consumption; scenario planning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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