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Democratic Transformation and Regional Institutions: The Case of Myanmar and ASEAN

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  • Catherine Shanahan Renshaw

Abstract

The focus of this article is Myanmar’s transition to democracy, which is taking place after almost half a century of military rule. The former military rulers are themselves the architects of transition. This article notes that one of the key challenges faced by military regimes during this kind of transition is the problem of “credible commitments”. In short, the issue is this: a transition will only be successful if it has the support of the political opposition and the public at large. But why should these groups believe in the promises of former tyrants? Problems of credibility and low expectations about the intention and capacity of the military to effect reform can cause destabilisation and undermine prospects for a successful transition. In worst case scenarios, instability leads to a resurgence of authoritarianism, or to a(nother) military coup. This article highlights the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in assisting the transition and stabilisation of Myanmar’s fledgling democracy. The argument is that ASEAN provides a means whereby Myanmar’s leaders can make credible commitments about their intentions in relation to liberalisation and democratisation, lending support to Myanmar’s reformist government at a crucial time in the transition to democracy. The article concludes that under certain circumstances, even regional organisations such as ASEAN, which are not comprised of a majority of democratic states, can (to a degree) influence perceptions about a democratising regime’s commitment to reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Shanahan Renshaw, 2013. "Democratic Transformation and Regional Institutions: The Case of Myanmar and ASEAN," Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 32(1), pages 29-54.
  • Handle: RePEc:gig:soaktu:v:32:y:2013:i:1:p:29-54
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    File URL: http://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/jsaa/article/view/639/637
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter T. Leeson & Andrea M. Dean, 2009. "The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 533-551, July.
    2. Sai Khaing Myo Tun, 2011. "A Comparative Study of State-Led Development in Myanmar (1988–2010) and Suharto’s Indonesia: An Approach from the Developmental State Theory," Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 30(1), pages 69-94.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kerstin Radtke, 2014. "ASEAN Enlargement and Norm Change – A Window of Opportunity for Democracy and Human Rights Entrepreneurs?," Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 33(3), pages 79-105.
    2. Ephraim Bassey Emah, 2020. "The Dilemma of Violent Extremism and Conflict Escalation among Youths in Myanmar," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(12), pages 276-292, December.
    3. I Gede Wahyu Wicaksana & Demas Nauvarian & Putu Shangrina Pramudia, 2023. "ASEAN, COVID-19 and Myanmar crisis: Dealing with critical juncture," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 40-54, March.

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