IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v3y2014i3p917-940d38774.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Korbinian P. Freier

    (Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Manfred Finckh

    (Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, University of Hamburg, Ohnhorststr. 18, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Uwe A. Schneider

    (Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

In a modeling study we examine vulnerability of income from mobile (transhumant) pastoralism and sedentary pastoralism to reduced mean annual precipitation (MAP) and droughts. The study is based on empirical data of a 3410 km 2 research region in southern, semi-arid Morocco. The land use decision model integrates a meta-model of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) simulator to depict perennial and annual forage plant development. It also includes livestock dynamics and forward-looking decision making under uncertain weather. Mobile livestock in the model moves seasonally, sedentary livestock is restricted to pastures around settlements. For a reduction of MAP by 20%, our model shows for different experimental frequencies of droughts a significant decrease of total income from pastoralism by 8%–19% ( p < 0.05). Looking separately at the two modes of pastoralism, pronounced income losses of 18%–44% ( p < 0.05) show that sedentary pastoralism is much more vulnerable to dryer climate than mobile pastoralism, which is merely affected. Dedicating more pasture area and high quality fodder to mobile pastoralism significantly abates impacts from reduced MAP and droughts on total income by 11% ( p < 0.05). Our results indicate that promotion of mobile pastoralism in semi-arid areas is a valuable option to increase resilience against climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Korbinian P. Freier & Manfred Finckh & Uwe A. Schneider, 2014. "Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:3:y:2014:i:3:p:917-940:d:38774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/917/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/917/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbier, Bruno & Bergeron, Gilles, 2001. "Natural resource management in the hillsides of Honduras: bioeconomic modeling at the micro-watershed level," Research reports 123, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Freier, Korbinian P. & Bruggemann, Rainer & Scheffran, Jürgen & Finckh, Manfred & Schneider, Uwe A., 2012. "Assessing the predictability of future livelihood strategies of pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco under climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 371-382.
    3. Hazell, P. B. R. & Oram, Peter A. & Chaherli, Nabil, 2001. "Managing droughts in the low-rainfall areas of the Middle East and North Africa," EPTD discussion papers 78, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Thornton, P.K. & van de Steeg, J. & Notenbaert, A. & Herrero, M., 2009. "The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 113-127, July.
    5. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Žiga Malek & Peter H. Verburg, 2018. "Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 821-837, August.
    2. Bayarmaa Byambaa & Walter T. de Vries, 2021. "The Production of Pastoral Space: Modeling Spatial Occupation of Grazing Land for Environmental Impact Assessment Using Structural Equation Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sèyi Fridaïus Ulrich Vanvanhossou & Luc Hippolyte Dossa & Sven König, 2021. "Sustainable Management of Animal Genetic Resources to Improve Low-Input Livestock Production: Insights into Local Beninese Cattle Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie & Awa Sanou & Justice A. Tambo, 2019. "Climate change adaptation among poultry farmers: evidence from Nigeria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 527-544, December.
    3. Muhammad Irshad Ahmad & Hengyun Ma, 2020. "Climate Change and Livelihood Vulnerability in Mixed Crop–Livestock Areas: The Case of Province Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Philippe Delacote & Julia Girard & Antoine Leblois, 2019. "Agricultural households' adaptation to weather shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: What implications for land-use change and deforestation," Working Papers 1902, Chaire Economie du climat.
    5. Gregory Chingala & Cletos Mapiye & Emiliano Raffrenato & Louw Hoffman & Kennedy Dzama, 2017. "Determinants of smallholder farmers’ perceptions of impact of climate change on beef production in Malawi," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 129-141, May.
    6. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki & Douglas Paton & Jonatan A. Lassa & Gopal Datt Bhatta & Kerstin K. Zander, 2020. "Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3213-3237, September.
    7. Andrew Barnes & Luiza Toma, 2012. "A typology of dairy farmer perceptions towards climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 507-522, May.
    8. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    9. Chidiebere Ofoegbu & Mark George New & Kibet Staline, 2018. "The Effect of Inter-Organisational Collaboration Networks on Climate Knowledge Flows and Communication to Pastoralists in Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    10. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Findlay, Christopher & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2020. "Management adaptation to flood in Guangdong Province in China: Do property rights Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    12. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    13. M. Melissa Rojas-Downing & A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi & Mohammad Abouali & Fariborz Daneshvar & Sabah Anwer Dawood Al Masraf & Matthew R. Herman & Timothy Harrigan & Zhen Zhang, 2018. "Pasture diversification to combat climate change impacts on grazing dairy production," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 405-431, March.
    14. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    15. Seydou Zakari & Germaine Ibro & Bokar Moussa & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2022. "Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Impacts on Household Income and Food Security: Evidence from Sahelian Region of Niger," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Vermaak, Herman Jacobus & Kusakana, Kanzumba & Koko, Sandile Philip, 2014. "Status of micro-hydrokinetic river technology in rural applications: A review of literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 625-633.
    17. Lenyeletse V. Basupi & Claire H. Quinn & Andrew J. Dougill, 2017. "Pastoralism and Land Tenure Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Conflicting Policies and Priorities in Ngamiland, Botswana," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Kwasi, Frimpong & Oosthuizen, Jacque & Etten, Eddie Van, 2014. "The Extent of Heat on Health and Sustainable Farming in Ghana –Bawku East," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 3(3).
    19. Simon Tilleard & James Ford, 2016. "Adaptation readiness and adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 575-591, August.
    20. Shikuku, Kelvin M. & Valdivia, Roberto O. & Paul, Birthe K. & Mwongera, Caroline & Winowiecki, Leigh & Läderach, Peter & Herrero, Mario & Silvestri, Silvia, 2017. "Prioritizing climate-smart livestock technologies in rural Tanzania: A minimum data approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 204-216.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:3:y:2014:i:3:p:917-940:d:38774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.