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Predicting the Non-Return of Chonsei Lease Deposits in the Republic of Korea

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  • Joung Oh Park

    (Seoul Business School, aSSIST University, Seoul 03707, Republic of Korea)

  • Jinhee Choi

    (Seoul Business School, aSSIST University, Seoul 03707, Republic of Korea)

  • Guy Ngayo

    (Department of Strategic Manageemnt, Franklin University Switzerland, Via Ponte Tresa 29, 6924 Sorengo, Switzerland)

Abstract

Chonsei, a Korean housing lease system, enables landlords to acquire direct housing purchase funds without mortgages and offers tenants a cost-effective rental option. However, public concerns have arisen about potential landlord defaults, causing financial distress for tenants. This study examined the risk of non-return of the Chonsei deposit and developed a default prediction model using Chonsei contract data from the Korea Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation. Starting with the components from Merton’s bond pricing model, we included variables that reflect contract-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and the Korean Chonsei practices. The findings revealed that higher house price volatility, elevated debt-to-house value, and risk-free interest rates positively correlate with non-return risk. Meanwhile, certain factors, such as longer remaining maturity, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and rising market Chonsei price trends, demonstrated negative correlations with non-return risk. Consequently, a logistic regression-based default prediction model, with eight risk factors that predict the deposit non-return, was suggested. By identifying risk factors and predicting the non-return risk of deposits, this study contributes to an informed policy decision in planning and practicing Chonsei contracts in the Korean housing market.

Suggested Citation

  • Joung Oh Park & Jinhee Choi & Guy Ngayo, 2023. "Predicting the Non-Return of Chonsei Lease Deposits in the Republic of Korea," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-14, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:10:p:439-:d:1255994
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kim, Jinwon, 2013. "Financial repression and housing investment: An analysis of the Korean chonsei," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 338-358.
    3. Brueckner, Jan K, 2000. "Mortgage Default with Asymmetric Information," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 251-274, May.
    4. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    5. Park, Sung Sik & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2020. "Between two extreme practices of rent-only and deposit-only leases in Korea: Default risk vs. cost of capital," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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