IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v21y2024i5p576-d1386655.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Allison Bailey

    (EcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Ave., Ste. 1200, New York, NY 10018, USA)

  • Paula R. Prist

    (EcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Ave., Ste. 1200, New York, NY 10018, USA
    Future Earth, One Health, 413 Chukar Ct., Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA)

Abstract

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R 2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = −4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Allison Bailey & Paula R. Prist, 2024. "Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(5), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:5:p:576-:d:1386655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/21/5/576/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/21/5/576/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bauhoff, Sebastian & Busch, Jonah, 2020. "Does deforestation increase malaria prevalence? Evidence from satellite data and health surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Zeileis, Achim & Grothendieck, Gabor, 2005. "zoo: S3 Infrastructure for Regular and Irregular Time Series," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i06).
    3. Bates, Douglas & Mächler, Martin & Bolker, Ben & Walker, Steve, 2015. "Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i01).
    4. Isaac Lyatuu & Georg Loss & Andrea Farnham & Mirko S Winkler & Günther Fink, 2021. "Short-term effects of national-level natural resource rents on life expectancy: A cross-country panel data analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-13, May.
    5. Sumin Kim & Ermias Tadesse & Yan Jin & Seungman Cha, 2022. "Association between Development Assistance for Health and Disease Burden: A Longitudinal Analysis on Official Development Assistance for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in 2005–2017," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-12, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. JANSSENS, Jochen & DE CORTE, Annelies & SÖRENSEN, Kenneth, 2016. "Water distribution network design optimisation with respect to reliability," Working Papers 2016007, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    2. Raymond Hernandez & Elizabeth A. Pyatak & Cheryl L. P. Vigen & Haomiao Jin & Stefan Schneider & Donna Spruijt-Metz & Shawn C. Roll, 2021. "Understanding Worker Well-Being Relative to High-Workload and Recovery Activities across a Whole Day: Pilot Testing an Ecological Momentary Assessment Technique," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Elisabeth Beckmann & Lukas Olbrich & Joseph Sakshaug, 2024. "Multivariate assessment of interviewer-related errors in a cross-national economic survey (Lukas Olbrich, Elisabeth Beckmann, Joseph W. Sakshaug)," Working Papers 253, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Valentina Krenz & Arjen Alink & Tobias Sommer & Benno Roozendaal & Lars Schwabe, 2023. "Time-dependent memory transformation in hippocampus and neocortex is semantic in nature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Damian M. Herz & Manuel Bange & Gabriel Gonzalez-Escamilla & Miriam Auer & Keyoumars Ashkan & Petra Fischer & Huiling Tan & Rafal Bogacz & Muthuraman Muthuraman & Sergiu Groppa & Peter Brown, 2022. "Dynamic control of decision and movement speed in the human basal ganglia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Dongyan Liu & Chongran Zhou & John K. Keesing & Oscar Serrano & Axel Werner & Yin Fang & Yingjun Chen & Pere Masque & Janine Kinloch & Aleksey Sadekov & Yan Du, 2022. "Wildfires enhance phytoplankton production in tropical oceans," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Zhaogeng Yang & Yanhui Li & Peijin Hu & Jun Ma & Yi Song, 2020. "Prevalence of Anemia and its Associated Factors among Chinese 9-, 12-, and 14-Year-Old Children: Results from 2014 Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-10, February.
    9. Marco Lopez-Cruz & Fernando M. Aguate & Jacob D. Washburn & Natalia Leon & Shawn M. Kaeppler & Dayane Cristina Lima & Ruijuan Tan & Addie Thompson & Laurence Willard Bretonne & Gustavo los Campos, 2023. "Leveraging data from the Genomes-to-Fields Initiative to investigate genotype-by-environment interactions in maize in North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Baumann, Elias & Kern, Jana & Lessmann, Stefan, 2019. "Usage Continuance in Software-as-a-Service," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-005, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    11. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:1:p:201-237 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. C. Gabriel Hidalgo Pizango & Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado & Jhon del Águila-Pasquel & Gerardo Flores Llampazo & Johan de Jong & César J. Córdova Oroche & José M. Reyna Huaymacari & Steve J. Carver & D, 2022. "Sustainable palm fruit harvesting as a pathway to conserve Amazon peatland forests," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 479-487, June.
    13. Szefer Elena & Graham Jinko & Lu Donghuan & Beg Mirza Faisal & Nathoo Farouk, 2017. "Multivariate association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms in Alzgene linkage regions and structural changes in the brain: discovery, refinement and validation," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 16(5-6), pages 349-365, December.
    14. Julien Collet & Samantha C Patrick & Henri Weimerskirch, 2017. "A comparative analysis of the behavioral response to fishing boats in two albatross species," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 28(5), pages 1337-1347.
    15. Sean Coogan & Zhixian Sui & David Raubenheimer, 2018. "Gluttony and guilt: monthly trends in internet search query data are comparable with national-level energy intake and dieting behavior," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Darcy Steeg Morris & Kimberly F. Sellers, 2022. "A Flexible Mixed Model for Clustered Count Data," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Malte Willmes & Katherine M Ransom & Levi S Lewis & Christian T Denney & Justin J G Glessner & James A Hobbs, 2018. "IsoFishR: An application for reproducible data reduction and analysis of strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) obtained via laser-ablation MC-ICP-MS," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    18. Katrijn Delaruelle, 2023. "Migration-related inequalities in loneliness across age groups: a cross-national comparative study in Europe," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.
    19. Christos C Ioannou & Luis Arrochela Braga Carvalho & Chessy Budleigh & Graeme D Ruxton, 2023. "Virtual prey with Lévy motion are preferentially attacked by predatory fish," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 34(4), pages 695-699.
    20. Vonneilich, Nico & Lüdecke, Daniel & von dem Knesebeck, Olaf, 2020. "Educational inequalities in self-rated health and social relationships – analyses based on the European Social Survey 2002-2016," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    21. Kimmo Eriksson & Irina Vartanova & Petra Ornstein & Pontus Strimling, 2021. "The common-is-moral association is stronger among less religious people," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:5:p:576-:d:1386655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.