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Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjib Saha

    (Health Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Science (Malmö), Lund University, Medicon Village, Scheelevägen 2, SE-22381, Lund, Sweden)

  • Jonas Nordstrom

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, DK-1958 Frederiksberg, Denmark
    Lund University School of Economics and Management, Agrifood Economics Centre, SE-22007 Lund, Sweden)

  • Ulf-G Gerdtham

    (Health Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Science (Malmö), Lund University, Medicon Village, Scheelevägen 2, SE-22381, Lund, Sweden
    Department of Economics, Lund University, SE-22363 Lund, Sweden)

  • Irene Mattisson

    (National Food Agency, SE-75126 Uppsala, Sweden)

  • Peter M Nilsson

    (Department of Emergency Care and Internal Medicine, Skane University Hospital, SE-20502 Malmo, Sweden
    Department of Clinical Sciences (Malmo), Lund University, SE-20502 Lund, Sweden)

  • Peter Scarborough

    (British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention and NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Oxford, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX37LF, UK)

Abstract

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086–7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjib Saha & Jonas Nordstrom & Ulf-G Gerdtham & Irene Mattisson & Peter M Nilsson & Peter Scarborough, 2019. "Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:5:p:890-:d:212973
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    References listed on IDEAS

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