IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i4p798-d492481.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Energy Demand in Semi-Remote Arctic Locations

Author

Listed:
  • Odin Foldvik Eikeland

    (Department of Physics and Technology, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway)

  • Filippo Maria Bianchi

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics and NORCE, The Norwegian Research Centre, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway)

  • Harry Apostoleris

    (Laboratory for Energy and NanoScience (LENS), Masdar Institute Campus, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, 127788 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)

  • Morten Hansen

    (Ishavskraft Power Company, 9024 Tromsø, Norway)

  • Yu-Cheng Chiou

    (Department of Physics and Technology, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway)

  • Matteo Chiesa

    (Department of Physics and Technology, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
    Department of Mathematics and Statistics and NORCE, The Norwegian Research Centre, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway)

Abstract

Forecasting energy demand within a distribution network is essential for developing strategies to manage and optimize available energy resources and the associated infrastructure. In this study, we consider remote communities in the Arctic located at the end of the radial distribution network without alternative energy supply. Therefore, it is crucial to develop an accurate forecasting model to manage and optimize the limited energy resources available. We first compare the accuracy of several models that perform short-and medium-term load forecasts in rural areas, where a single industrial customer dominates the electricity consumption. We consider both statistical methods and machine learning models to predict energy demand. Then, we evaluate the transferability of each method to a geographical rural area different from the one considered for training. Our results indicate that statistical models achieve higher accuracy on longer forecast horizons relative to neural networks, while the machine-learning approaches perform better in predicting load at shorter time intervals. The machine learning models also exhibit good transferability, as they manage to predict well the load at new locations that were not accounted for during training. Our work will serve as a guide for selecting the appropriate prediction model and apply it to perform energy load forecasting in rural areas and in locations where historical consumption data may be limited or even not available.

Suggested Citation

  • Odin Foldvik Eikeland & Filippo Maria Bianchi & Harry Apostoleris & Morten Hansen & Yu-Cheng Chiou & Matteo Chiesa, 2021. "Predicting Energy Demand in Semi-Remote Arctic Locations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:4:p:798-:d:492481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/4/798/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/4/798/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silva Herran, Diego & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2012. "Design of decentralized energy systems for rural electrification in developing countries considering regional disparity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 130-145.
    2. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    3. Xiao, Xiangsheng & Wang, Jianxiao & Lin, Rui & Hill, David J. & Kang, Chongqing, 2020. "Large-scale aggregation of prosumers toward strategic bidding in joint energy and regulation markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    4. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    5. Boute, Anatole, 2016. "Off-grid renewable energy in remote Arctic areas: An analysis of the Russian Far East," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1029-1037.
    6. Quitoras, Marvin Rhey & Campana, Pietro Elia & Rowley, Paul & Crawford, Curran, 2020. "Remote community integrated energy system optimization including building enclosure improvements and quantitative energy trilemma metrics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    7. Arcos-Aviles, Diego & Pascual, Julio & Guinjoan, Francesc & Marroyo, Luis & Sanchis, Pablo & Marietta, Martin P., 2017. "Low complexity energy management strategy for grid profile smoothing of a residential grid-connected microgrid using generation and demand forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 69-84.
    8. James W. Taylor, 2008. "A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 253-265, February.
    9. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Nybø, Astrid, 2020. "Transitioning remote Arctic settlements to renewable energy systems – A modelling study of Longyearbyen, Svalbard," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    10. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    11. Thomas Morstyn & Niall Farrell & Sarah J. Darby & Malcolm D. McCulloch, 2018. "Using peer-to-peer energy-trading platforms to incentivize prosumers to form federated power plants," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 94-101, February.
    12. Peter Alstone & Dimitry Gershenson & Daniel M. Kammen, 2015. "Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 305-314, April.
    13. Deihimi, Ali & Orang, Omid & Showkati, Hemen, 2013. "Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 382-401.
    14. Jiang, Yanni & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "Electricity trading pricing among prosumers with game theory-based model in energy blockchain environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    15. Aberilla, Jhud Mikhail & Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro & Stamford, Laurence & Azapagic, Adisa, 2020. "Design and environmental sustainability assessment of small-scale off-grid energy systems for remote rural communities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    16. Seung-Min Jung & Sungwoo Park & Seung-Won Jung & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "Monthly Electric Load Forecasting Using Transfer Learning for Smart Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-20, August.
    17. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    18. Orehounig, Kristina & Evins, Ralph & Dorer, Viktor, 2015. "Integration of decentralized energy systems in neighbourhoods using the energy hub approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 277-289.
    19. Jon Olauson & Mohd Nasir Ayob & Mikael Bergkvist & Nicole Carpman & Valeria Castellucci & Anders Goude & David Lingfors & Rafael Waters & Joakim Widén, 2016. "Net load variability in Nordic countries with a highly or fully renewable power system," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 1-8, December.
    20. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    21. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    22. Deihimi, Ali & Showkati, Hemen, 2012. "Application of echo state networks in short-term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 327-340.
    23. Hafeez, Ghulam & Alimgeer, Khurram Saleem & Khan, Imran, 2020. "Electric load forecasting based on deep learning and optimized by heuristic algorithm in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    24. An, Jongbaek & Lee, Minhyun & Yeom, Seungkeun & Hong, Taehoon, 2020. "Determining the Peer-to-Peer electricity trading price and strategy for energy prosumers and consumers within a microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuriy Zhukovskiy & Pavel Tsvetkov & Aleksandra Buldysko & Yana Malkova & Antonina Stoianova & Anastasia Koshenkova, 2021. "Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Andrea Kolková & Petr Rozehnal, 2022. "Hybrid demand forecasting models: pre-pandemic and pandemic use studies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 699-725, September.
    3. Venkataramana Veeramsetty & Arjun Mohnot & Gaurav Singal & Surender Reddy Salkuti, 2021. "Short Term Active Power Load Prediction on A 33/11 kV Substation Using Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Gržanić, M. & Capuder, T. & Zhang, N. & Huang, W., 2022. "Prosumers as active market participants: A systematic review of evolution of opportunities, models and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Azim, M. Imran & Tushar, Wayes & Saha, Tapan K. & Yuen, Chau & Smith, David, 2022. "Peer-to-peer kilowatt and negawatt trading: A review of challenges and recent advances in distribution networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Roth, Tamara & Utz, Manuel & Baumgarte, Felix & Rieger, Alexander & Sedlmeir, Johannes & Strüker, Jens, 2022. "Electricity powered by blockchain: A review with a European perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    5. Zeng, Yu & Wei, Xuan & Yao, Yuan & Xu, Yinliang & Sun, Hongbin & Kin Victor Chan, Wai & Feng, Wei, 2023. "Determining the pricing and deployment strategy for virtual power plants of peer-to-peer prosumers: A game-theoretic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 345(C).
    6. Tushar, Wayes & Yuen, Chau & Saha, Tapan K. & Morstyn, Thomas & Chapman, Archie C. & Alam, M. Jan E. & Hanif, Sarmad & Poor, H. Vincent, 2021. "Peer-to-peer energy systems for connected communities: A review of recent advances and emerging challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    7. Akylas Stratigakos & Athanasios Bachoumis & Vasiliki Vita & Elias Zafiropoulos, 2021. "Short-Term Net Load Forecasting with Singular Spectrum Analysis and LSTM Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-13, July.
    8. Zhou, Yuekuan & Lund, Peter D., 2023. "Peer-to-peer energy sharing and trading of renewable energy in smart communities ─ trading pricing models, decision-making and agent-based collaboration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 177-193.
    9. Rodriguez, Mauricio & Arcos-Aviles, Diego & Guinjoan, Francesc, 2024. "Simple fuzzy logic-based energy management for power exchange in isolated multi-microgrid systems: A case study in a remote community in the Amazon region of Ecuador," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    10. Maghsoodi, Abtin Ijadi, 2023. "Cryptocurrency portfolio allocation using a novel hybrid and predictive big data decision support system," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    12. Gang Li & Bao-Jian Li & Xu-Guang Yu & Chun-Tian Cheng, 2015. "Echo State Network with Bayesian Regularization for Forecasting Short-Term Power Production of Small Hydropower Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-14, October.
    13. Hu, Qian & Zhu, Ziqing & Bu, Siqi & Wing Chan, Ka & Li, Fangxing, 2021. "A multi-market nanogrid P2P energy and ancillary service trading paradigm: Mechanisms and implementations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    14. Md Jamal Ahmed Shohan & Md Omar Faruque & Simon Y. Foo, 2022. "Forecasting of Electric Load Using a Hybrid LSTM-Neural Prophet Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    17. Juanpera, M. & Ferrer-Martí, L. & Pastor, R., 2022. "Multi-stage optimization of rural electrification planning at regional level considering multiple criteria. Case study in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    18. Milad Afzalan & Farrokh Jazizadeh, 2021. "Quantification of Demand-Supply Balancing Capacity among Prosumers and Consumers: Community Self-Sufficiency Assessment for Energy Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    19. Hany Habbak & Mohamed Mahmoud & Khaled Metwally & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2023. "Load Forecasting Techniques and Their Applications in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    20. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Seljom, Pernille & Lind, Arne & Wagner, Fabian & Mesfun, Sennai, 2020. "Short-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models - A European case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:4:p:798-:d:492481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.