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The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain

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  • Kepa Solaun

    (School of Sciences, Universidad de Navarra, Campus Universitario, 31080 Pamplona, Spain
    Factor CO2, Colón de Larreátegui, 26, Planta 1, 48006 Bilbao, Spain)

  • Emilio Cerdá

    (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Campus de Somosaguas, Pozuelo de Alarcón, 28223 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

Climate change could pose a significant threat to the energy sector in various countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term impact of changes in precipitation and water availability on hydroelectric production. To do so, the study focuses on three hydroelectric power plants in Southern Spain combining climatological, technical and economic data and projections. A physical model has been designed that reproduces the plants’ operations and incorporates various scenarios for the evolution of contributions to the basin. The results predict a 10 to 49% drop in production by the end of the century, depending on the plant and scenario. This decrease in production, in accordance with our economic and operational hypotheses, would significantly affect the operating margins of the facilities and, in certain scenarios, could reach an economically unsustainable level by the end of the century. An investment analysis has been carried out as well, showing that climate change may jeopardize future investments in similar facilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kepa Solaun & Emilio Cerdá, 2017. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:9:p:1343-:d:110935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    2. Michael Berlemann & Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Precipitation and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 7258, CESifo.
    3. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "What are the short-to-medium-term effects of extreme weather on the Croatian economy?," Working Papers 70, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

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