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International business cycles: theory vs. evidence

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Author Info
David K. Backus
Patrick J. Kehoe
Finn E. Kydland

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Abstract

This article reviews recent work comparing properties of international business cycles with those of dynamic general equilibrium models. Two discrepancies between theory and data are described. One concerns the correlation across countries of fluctuations in consumption, output, and productivity: in the data, the output correlation is generally the largest; in theoretical economies, however, for a wide range of parameter values, the consumption correlation is the largest. The other discrepancy concerns relative price movements: the standard deviation of the terms of trade is considerably larger in the data than in theoretical economies. Also described here are several changes in theoretical structure that researchers have attempted, without success, to bring the theory and the data closer together. This article is a revision of a chapter prepared for a forthcoming book, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, edited by Thomas F. Cooley, to be published by Princeton University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): Fall ()
Pages: 14-29
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1993:i:fall:p:14-29:n:v.17no.4

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Keywords: Business cycles ; International finance;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Finn, Mary G., 1990. "On savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 1-21, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 4502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1992. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Exchange Economies with Nontraded Goods," Working Papers 92-7, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hornstein, Andreas, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, increasing returns to scale, and the importance of productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 299-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Beverly J. Lapham, 1990. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Deviations from the Laws of One Price," Working Papers 793, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  11. John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204, January.
  12. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  13. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  16. Burdett, Kenneth & Wright, Randall, 1989. "Unemployment Insurance and Short-Time Compensation: The Effects on Layoffs, Hours per Worker, and Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1479-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2007. "Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices," Working Paper Series 2007-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Devereux & Graham Voss, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Specialization and Trade Volume," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1291-1291. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jean-Olivier Hairault, 2002. "Labor-Market Search and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 535-558, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Costas Karfakis & Anthony Phipps, 2000. "Australia's net exports and the Australian Dollar effective exchange rate," Working Papers 2000-5, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ariel Burstein & Christopher Johann Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2004. "Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 522, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 7870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Chang, Yanqin, 2007. "high level of international risk sharing when the productivity growth contains long run risk," MPRA Paper 4476, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Royuela, Vicente, 2000. "International Real Business Cycles: Can A Two Countries Two Sectors Model Solve The Quantity Anomaly?," ERSA conference papers ersa00p203, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lise Patureau, 2002. "Pricing-to-market and limited participation : a joint explanation to the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 299, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael R. Pakko, 1994. "Characterizing cross-country consumption correlations," Working Papers 1994-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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