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Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better

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Author Info
Julapa Jagtiani
James Kolari
Catharine Lemieux
Hwan Shin

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Abstract

Can computer-based models, using publicly available information, be used as off-site early warning systems (EWS) to identify banks that will become inadequately capitalized in the near future? The EWS models analyzed in this article are able to detect the early onset of financial distress one year in advance with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Although simple EWS models do as well as or better than more sophisticated ones, more sophisticated models could provide detailed information about individual bank strengths and weaknesses.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 49-60
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qiii:p:49-60:n:v.27no.3

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Related research
Keywords: Bank supervision;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
  3. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Using equity market information to monitor banking institutions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan 24. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]
  5. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 1999. "The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-56. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jeffery W. Gunther & Robert R. Moore, 2000. "Early warning models in real time," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 00-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical Opacity In The U.S. Banking Industry," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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