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Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation

Author

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  • Kevin J. Lansing

Abstract

How much persistent versus transitory forces contribute to inflation influences the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve its goal of 2% average inflation over time. If elevated inflation is driven mainly by persistent shocks, then a stronger and longer-lasting policy response is likely to be needed to bring inflation back down. Recent data show that consecutive changes in monthly inflation rates have tended to move increasingly in the same direction. This pattern suggests that the contribution of persistent shocks to inflation has been rising since mid-2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Lansing, 2022. "Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(13), pages 1-05, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:94273
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "The Singularity of the Dual Mandate," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(27), pages 1-8, October.
    2. Valencia, Oscar & Gamboa-Arbeláez, Juliana & Sánchez, Gustavo, 2023. "Debt Erosion: Asymmetric Response to Demand and Supply Shocks," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12978, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.

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