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FSA farm loan repayment under economic recession and drought conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Cesar Escalante
  • Minrong Song
  • Charles Dodson

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the repayment records of Farm Service Agency (FSA) borrowers in two distinct US farming regions that have been experienced serious drought conditions even as the US economy was going through a recession. The analysis will identify factors that significantly influence both the probability of FSA borrowers’ survival (capability to remain in good credit standing) and temporal endurance (or length of period of good standing with creditor). Design/methodology/approach - This analysis utilizes a data set of farm borrowers of the Farm Service Agency that regular farm lenders have classified as “marginal” relative to other borrowers. The research goal is addressed by confining this study’s regional focus to the Southeast and Midwest that have both dealt with financial stress arising from abnormal natural and economic conditions prevailing during the same time period. A split population duration model is employed to separately identify determinants of the probability and duration of survival (condition of good credit standing). Findings - This study’s results indicate that larger loan balances, declining commodity prices, and the severity of drought conditions have adversely affected both the borrowing farms’ probability of survival and temporal endurance in terms of maintaining non-delinquent borrower standing. Notably, Midwestern farms have been relatively less affected by drought conditions compared to Southeastern farms. This study’s results validate the contention that the farms’ capability to survive and the duration of their survival can be attributed to differences in regional resource endowments, farming activities, and business structures. Originality/value - This study’s analytical framework departs from the basic duration model approach by considering temporal endurance, in addition to survival probability analysis. This study’s original contributions are enhanced by its specific focus on the contrasting farm business structures and operating environments in the Midwest and Southeast regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesar Escalante & Minrong Song & Charles Dodson, 2016. "FSA farm loan repayment under economic recession and drought conditions," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 76(4), pages 445-461, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:afr-07-2016-0063
    DOI: 10.1108/AFR-07-2016-0063
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frederick Murdoch Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2017. "Factors Affecting Farm Loan Delinquency in the Southeast," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 75-92, December.
    2. Song, Minrong & Escalante, Cesar L., 2014. "Pre- and Post- Recession Input Allocation Decisions of Farm Credit System Lending Units," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170080, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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