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Combating hysteresis with output targeting

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas R. Michl

    (Department of Economics, Colgate University, USA)

  • Kayla M. Oliver

    (Department of Economics, Colgate University, USA)

Abstract

Hysteresis, path dependence, and multiple equilibria are characteristic features of post-Keynesian economics. This paper constructs an otherwise conventional three-equation model that includes a hysteresis-generating mechanism and an invariant output target. We use it to explore the implications for monetary policy of an output-targeting policy framework that seeks to reverse the damage caused by hysteresis. We restrict ourselves to negative aggregate demand shocks and positive inflation shocks that in most instances require a disinflationary response from the central bank. One important finding is that as long as inflation expectations are to some degree anchored, the central bank can achieve its output target after an aggregate demand shock by overshooting its inflation target temporarily and running a 'high-pressure labor market.' If expectations are unanchored, an aggregate demand shock will not have long-run hysteresis effects because the central bank is obliged to reflate aggressively, replacing on a cumulative basis all the demand that was lost through the shock. However, with unanchored expectations a pure inflation shock will create hysteresis effects since the central bank will need to disinflate and it does not have the option of running a high-pressure labor market. Anchoring gives the central bank this option, making inflation shocks manageable.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Michl & Kayla M. Oliver, 2019. "Combating hysteresis with output targeting," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 6-27, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p6-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Tavani & Luke Petach, 2021. "Firm beliefs and long-run demand effects in a labor-constrained model of growth and distribution," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 353-377, April.
    2. Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2021. "Hysteresis in the New Keynesian three equation model," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0821, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    3. Leila Davis & Thomas R. Michl, 2024. "The Inverted Yield Curve in a 3-Equation Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 195-212, April.
    4. Dávila-Ospina, Andrés O., 2023. "Hysteresis From Monetary Policy Mistakes: How Bad Could It Be?," Documentos CEDE 21003, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; hysteresis; path dependence; divine coincidence; inflation-expectations anchoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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