IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ejn/ejefjr/v4y2016i3p64-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating The Short Run Effects Of U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels On Wti Crude Oil Price From 1993 - 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Tobi Olasojiand

    (Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility, Nigeria)

  • Elijah Acquah-Andoh

    (Coventry University, UK)

Abstract

The focus of this research was to investigate the short-term influence of U.S. crude oil inventories on WTI crude oil prices from 1993 to 2013. This study is important for policy makers who wish to reduce the persistent and growing price volatility of crude oil and its related products as well as businesses such as airline companies who wish to make annual budgetary sales decisions. Using OLS multiple regression, cointegration, VECM and Ex-post forecast techniques; we provide evidence of an inelastic relationship in which a 1% increase in U.S. crude oil inventories is associated with 0.46% decrease in WTI crude oil prices; however this was only valid for 22% of WTI crude oil price variation. We also find that past data on U.S. crude oil inventories could be used to predict future WTI crude oil prices movement. Contrary to literature, the results of the VECM analysis indicate there is no short-run relationship between both variables over the trajectory.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobi Olasojiand & Elijah Acquah-Andoh, 2016. "Evaluating The Short Run Effects Of U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels On Wti Crude Oil Price From 1993 - 2013," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(3), pages 64-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:4:y:2016:i:3:p:64-84
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eurasianpublications.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/EJEF-4.3.6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    2. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
    3. Christopher R. Knittel & Robert S. Pindyck, 2016. "The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 85-110, April.
    4. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2014. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    6. Rentschler, Jun E., 2013. "Oil price volatility, economic growth and the hedging role of renewable energy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6603, The World Bank.
    7. Fattouh, Bassam, 2010. "The dynamics of crude oil price differentials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 334-342, March.
    8. Ye, Michael & Zyren, John & Shore, Joanne, 2005. "A monthly crude oil spot price forecasting model using relative inventories," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 491-501.
    9. Schmidbauer, Harald & Rösch, Angi, 2012. "OPEC news announcements: Effects on oil price expectation and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1656-1663.
    10. Shackle,G. L. S., 2012. "Expectation in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107629141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Jing, 2022. "Exploring the influence of the main factors on the crude oil price volatility: An analysis based on GARCH-MIDAS model with Lasso approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Li, Tingyi & Xue, Leyang & Chen, Yu & Chen, Feier & Miao, Yuqi & Shao, Xinzeng & Zhang, Chenyi, 2018. "Insights from multifractality analysis of tanker freight market volatility with common external factor of crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 374-384.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Omid Faseli, 2020. "The relationship between European Brent crude oil price development and the US macroeconomy," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 80-87, January.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    5. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    6. Awan, Obaid A., 2019. "Price discovery or noise: The role of arbitrage and speculation in explaining crude oil price behaviour," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    7. Antonio Jose Garzon Gordon & Luis Angel Hierro Recio, 2019. "External Effects of the War in Ukraine: The Impact on the Price of Oil in the Short-term," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 267-276.
    8. Klein, Tony, 2018. "Trends and contagion in WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures markets - The role of OPEC in the last decade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 636-646.
    9. Remzi Uctum & Georges Prat, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Post-Print hal-03513121, HAL.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Seong-Min Yoon, 2019. "OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(4), pages 1-23, December.
    11. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    12. Duong T Le, 2015. "Ex-ante Determinants of Volatility in the Crude Oil Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, January.
    13. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2012. "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting using wavelet decomposed ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 564-574.
    14. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "OPEC news and jumps in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    15. Klein, Tony, 2018. "Trends and Contagion in WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot and Futures Markets - The Role of OPEC in the last Decade," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    16. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    17. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Gao, Xin & Li, Bingxin & Liu, Rui, 2023. "The relative pricing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures: Expectations or risk premia?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    19. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Liang Hu & Yoon‐Jin Lee, 2024. "New evidence on crude oil market efficiency," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 892-916, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:4:y:2016:i:3:p:64-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Esra Barakli (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.