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Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico

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  • Ibarra, Carlos A.

Abstract

Following the recently-developed bounds testing approach, the paper analyzes the long-run determinants of the Mexican peso’s real exchange rate from 1988Q1 to 2008Q2. Controlling for the standard determinants, the paper shows that all types of capital inflows tended to appreciate the peso. In contrast to recent multi-country studies, it finds no evidence of a less harmful effect from foreign direct investment (FDI)—on the contrary, the FDI’s appreciation effect can be particularly strong—and interprets this finding. The paper also shows that monetary policy, through changes in the short-term interest differential, can have persistent, level effects on the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:2080-2090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.020
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    3. Ghazali, Ummu & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Should Malaysia depreciate her exchange rate ?," MPRA Paper 108481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. O. P. C. Muhammed Rafi & M. Ramachandran, 2018. "Capital flows and exchange rate volatility: experience of emerging economies," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-205, December.
    5. Carlos Villalobos Barría & Stephan Klasen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2016. "The Distribution Dynamics of Human Development in Mexico 1990–2010," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(S1), pages 47-67, August.
    6. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
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    8. Thomas Goda & Jan Priewe, 2020. "Determinants of real exchange rate movements in 15 emerging market economies," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 40(2), pages 214-237.
    9. Özcan KARAHAN & Olcay ÇOLAK, 2019. "The link between financial capital movements and the exchange rate in Turkey," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 263-281, December.
    10. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres, 2013. "Overvaluation of the real exchange rate and the Dutch Disease: the Colombian case," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10930, Universidad EAFIT.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1519, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Chenny Seftarita & Fitriyani & Cut Zakia Rizki & Diana Sapha & Abd. Jamal, 2019. "Short Term Portfolio Investment and BI Rate: Do They Determine the Stabilization of Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia?," Journal of Economic Development, Environment and People, Alliance of Central-Eastern European Universities, vol. 8(1), pages 18-28, March.
    13. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    16. Fizza Malik, 2016. "Modeling Dynamics of Exchange Rates Volatility: A Case of Pakistan from 1980-2010," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 144-161, September.
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