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Delusions of success: Costs and demand of high-speed rail in Italy and Spain

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  • Beria, Paolo
  • Grimaldi, Raffaele
  • Albalate, Daniel
  • Bel, Germà

Abstract

Mismatches between forecasted and actual costs and traffic figures are common in transport investments, especially in large scale ones, and so are delusions of the future demand. High-speed rail projects are often among the worst practices for cost overruns and demand overestimation, even where traffic figures may tell a history of apparent success.

Suggested Citation

  • Beria, Paolo & Grimaldi, Raffaele & Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà, 2018. "Delusions of success: Costs and demand of high-speed rail in Italy and Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 63-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:63-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.03.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Rategh, Yalda & Tamannaei, Mohammad & Zarei, Hamid, 2022. "A game-theoretic approach to an oligopolistic transportation market: Coopetition between incumbent systems subject to the entrance threat of an HSR service," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 144-171.
    4. Beria, Paolo & Lunkar, Vardhman & Tolentino, Samuel & Pařil, Vilém & Kvasnička, Michal, 2023. "Long-distance rail in Europe: Comparing the forms of head-on competition across Europe," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Carlos Romero & Clara Zamorano & Emilio Ortega & Belén Martín, 2021. "Access to Secondary HSR Stations in the Urban Periphery: A Generalised Cost-Based Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Li, Zekun & Chen, Zhenhua, 2023. "Predicting the future development scale of high-speed rail through the urban scaling law," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Audinga Baltrunaite & Egle Karmaziene, 2020. "Trainspotting: Board Appointments in Private Firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    9. Mohsen Momenitabar & Zhila Dehdari Ebrahimi & Mohammad Arani, 2020. "A Systematic and Analytical Review of the Socioeconomic and Environmental Impact of the Deployed High-Speed Rail (HSR) Systems on the World," Papers 2003.04452, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    10. Tengyuan Chang & Xiaopeng Deng & Bon-Gang Hwang, 2019. "Investigating Political Risk Paths in International High-Speed Railway Projects: The Case of Chinese International Contractors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-15, August.
    11. de Freitas, Lucas Meyer & Blum, Salem, 2024. "An accessibility-based methodology to identify corridor speed upgrades in the European rail network," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Beria, Paolo & Bertolin, Alberto, 2019. "Evolving long-distance passenger services. Market concentration, fares and specialisation patterns in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 77-92.
    13. Di Matteo, Dante & Mariotti, Ilaria & Rossi, Federica, 2023. "Transport infrastructure and economic performance: An evaluation of the Milan-Bologna high-speed rail corridor," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Martín, Belén & Ortega, Emilio & de Isidro, Ágata & Iglesias-Merchan, Carlos, 2021. "Improvements in high-speed rail network environmental evaluation and planning: An assessment of accessibility gains and landscape connectivity costs in Spain," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Beria, Paolo & Tolentino, Samuel & Filippini, Gabriele, 2020. "Are prices reduced from direct competition in high-speed rail? Some unexpected evidences from Italy," MPRA Paper 98841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jiao, Jingjuan & Wang, Jiaoe & Zhang, Fangni & Jin, Fengjun & Liu, Wei, 2020. "Roles of accessibility, connectivity and spatial interdependence in realizing the economic impact of high-speed rail: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Daniel Albalate & Mattia Borsati, 2019. "“On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy”," IREA Working Papers 201910, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2019.

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