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Omitted-variable bias and other matters in the defense of the category adjustment model: A comment on Crawford (2019)

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  • Duffy, Sean
  • Smith, John

Abstract

The datasets from Duffy, Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Crawford (2010) [Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 17(2), 224–230] were reanalyzed by Duffy and Smith (2018) [Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 25(5), 1740–1750]. Duffy and Smith (2018) conclude that the datasets are not consistent with the category adjustment model (CAM). Crawford (2019) [Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 26(2), 693–698] offered a reply to Duffy and Smith (2018) that is based on three main points. Crawford proposes regressions that are, in part, based on a “deviation” analysis. Crawford offers a different simulation of data and claims that the techniques employed by Duffy and Smith (2018) are not sufficiently sensitive to detect a specific relationship that is claimed to be consistent with CAM. Crawford also appeals to a figure showing that the responses appear to be biased toward the overall running mean, and presumably not toward recently viewed lines. We show that Crawford's analysis suffers from an omitted-variable bias. Once this bias is corrected, the evidence in support of CAM disappears. When we produce a simulated dataset that is consistent with the specification suggested by Crawford, the techniques of Duffy and Smith (2018) correctly detect the true relationship. Despite the assertion otherwise, the simulated dataset that was analyzed by Crawford is not publicly available. It remains our view that the datasets from Duffy, Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Crawford (2010) do not appear to be consistent with CAM or any Bayesian model of judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Duffy, Sean & Smith, John, 2020. "Omitted-variable bias and other matters in the defense of the category adjustment model: A comment on Crawford (2019)," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s2214804319303520
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2019.101501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paymon Ashourian & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Underlies the Contraction Bias in Delayed Comparison Tasks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-8, May.
    2. Ofri Raviv & Merav Ahissar & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2012. "How Recent History Affects Perception: The Normative Approach and Its Heuristic Approximation," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-10, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Crosetto, Paolo & Filippin, Antonio & Katuščák, Peter & Smith, John, 2020. "Central tendency bias in belief elicitation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Sean Duffy & John Smith, 2020. "On the category adjustment model: another look at Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Vevea (2000)," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 19(1), pages 163-193, June.

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