IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v42y2017icp454-467.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Tran, Thi Bich Ngoc

Abstract

The purpose of this study is firstly to test for the existence of periodically collapsing stock price bubbles in Asian and Latin American emerging stock markets for the period 1990–2009. We use the new non-cointegration test developed by Taylor and Peel (1998) with the Residuals-Augmented Least Squares (RALS) method of Im (1996) and Im and Schmidt (2008) for monthly data of price indexes and dividends. The results show that the hypothesis of formation of bubbles cannot be rejected for all of the studied emerging stock markets. This evidence implies that the co-integration relation between the prices and the dividends is not always supported, indicating that the stock prices do not reflect their fundamental values in the emerging stock markets. We then link speculative bubbles with macroeconomic and financial factors, which is an interesting contribution of this study. The degree of equity market openness is found to be the key factor, positively related to the formation of speculative bubbles in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Tran, Thi Bich Ngoc, 2017. "Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 454-467.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:454-467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531916300320
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris, 2014. "Speculative bubbles and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 20-31.
    2. Im, Kyung So & Schmidt, Peter, 2008. "More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 219-233, May.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    4. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    5. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2014. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kyuil Chung & Soyoung Kim & Hail Park & Changho Choi & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), Volatile Capital Flows in Korea, chapter 3, pages 51-82, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    8. Paul, Satya & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2003. "Macroeconomic Factors and Bank and Finance Stock Prices: The Australian Experience," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 23-30, March.
    9. Bing Zhang, 2008. "Duration dependence test for rational bubbles in Chinese stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 635-639.
    10. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
    11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    12. Bala Arshanapalli & William Nelson, 2008. "A Cointegration Test To Verify The Housing Bubble," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(2), pages 35-43.
    13. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1148-1171, October.
    14. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    15. Lim, Kian-Ping & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Trade openness and the informational efficiency of emerging stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2228-2238, September.
    16. Wang, Miao & Wong, M. C. Sunny, 2015. "Rational speculative bubbles in the US stock market and political cycles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    18. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
    19. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    20. Ritter, Jay R. & Warr, Richard S., 2002. "The Decline of Inflation and the Bull Market of 1982–1999," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 29-61, March.
    21. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    22. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
    23. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    24. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    25. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Stock market Development: Ghana Evidence," MPRA Paper 11261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Timothy A Luehrman, 1991. "Exchange Rate Changes and the Distribution of Industry Value," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(4), pages 619-649, December.
    27. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Basu, Parantap & R. Morey, Matthew, 2005. "Trade Opening and the Behavior of Emerging Stock Market Prices," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 68-92.
    29. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    30. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Asako, Kazumi & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "A statistical model of speculative bubbles, with applications to the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2639-2651.
    32. Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1988. "Evidence on stock market speculative bubbles: Japan, the United States, and Great Britain," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Sum), pages 4-16.
    33. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    34. L. Sarno & M. P. Taylor, 2003. "An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 635-643.
    35. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 379-401, September.
    36. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai-Yin, 2003. "An empirical investigation of price and exchange rate bubbles during the interwar European hyperinflations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-344.
    37. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1990. "On the Presence of Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 101-112, March.
    38. Parke, William R. & Waters, George A., 2007. "An evolutionary game theory explanation of ARCH effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2234-2262, July.
    39. Im, K.S., 1996. "Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    40. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1993. "Efficient Estimation with Orthogonal Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 687-687, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camilleri, Silvio John & Scicluna, Nicolanne & Bai, Ye, 2019. "Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 170-186.
    2. Manh-Tung Ho & Ngoc-Thang B. Le & Hung-Long D. Tran & Quoc-Hung Nguyen & Manh-Ha Pham & Minh-Hoang Ly & Manh-Toan Ho & Minh-Hoang Nguyen & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2021. "A Systematic and Critical Review on the Research Landscape of Finance in Vietnam from 2008 to 2020," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ullah, Irfan & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2021. "Identifying Phases of Ebullience in EFTA Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 109633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
    3. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    5. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    6. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    7. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    8. Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 90-101.
    9. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    10. Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
    11. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2009. "Testing for periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in US REITs," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2009-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    12. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng & Xie, Zixong, 2016. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the stock markets? New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 442-451.
    15. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    16. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2016. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 714-735.
    17. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2015. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the REIT markets? New evidence from the US," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-31.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    19. Alberto Madrid & Luis A. Hierro, 2015. "Burbujas especulativas: el estado de una cuestión poco estudiada," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 38(108), pages 123-138, Septiembr.
    20. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:454-467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.