IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v27y2013icp144-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Gebka, Bartosz
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

We analyse the causality between past trading volume and index returns in the Pacific Basin countries. OLS results indicate no causal link between volume and returns. However, the quantile regression method reveals strong nonlinear causality: positive for high return quantiles and negative for low ones. Causality in quantiles is not a statistical artefact of causality in periods of high volatility, i.e., causality does not occur in a clustered manner. Causality in quantiles helps to explain the lack of causality between volume and raw returns on the one hand and a strong causal relationship between volume and return volatility on the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 144-159.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:144-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.09.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056012000998
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2012.09.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    3. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
    4. Anirut Pisedtasalasai & Abeyratna Gunasekarage, 2007. "Causal and Dynamic Relationships among Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from Emerging markets in South-East Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 277-297, December.
    5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    6. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    7. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    8. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    9. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    10. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    11. Moosa, Imad A. & Silvapulle, Param, 2000. "The price-volume relationship in the crude oil futures market Some results based on linear and nonlinear causality testing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 11-30, February.
    12. Sangyeol Lee & Siyun Park, 2001. "The Cusum of Squares Test for Scale Changes in Infinite Order Moving Average Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 625-644, December.
    13. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    14. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    15. Kramer, Charles, 1999. "Noise trading, transaction costs, and the relationship of stock returns and trading volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 343-362, November.
    16. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    17. de Pooter, M.D. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2004. "Testing for changes in volatility in heteroskedastic time series - a further examination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    18. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    19. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    20. Andreu Sansó & Vicent Aragó & Josep Lluís Carrion, 2003. "Testing for Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Financial Time Series," DEA Working Papers 5, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    21. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
    22. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
    23. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    24. Lee, Cheng F & Rui, Oliver M, 2000. "Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 341-360, June.
    25. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    26. Jan Schneider, 2009. "A Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Informative Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2783-2805, December.
    27. Rashid, Abdul, 2007. "Stock prices and trading volume: An assessment for linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 595-612, August.
    28. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    29. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.
    30. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    31. Saatcioglu, Kemal & Starks, Laura T., 1998. "The stock price-volume relationship in emerging stock markets: the case of Latin America," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-225, June.
    32. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    33. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    34. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. "Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-181, March.
    35. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    36. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    37. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    38. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    39. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    40. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Mungai, Ann Nduati, 2022. "Stock returns, trading volume, and volatility: The case of African stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.
    3. Panpan Wang & Tsungwu Ho & Yishi Li, 2020. "The Price-Volume Relationship of the Shanghai Stock Index: Structural Change and the Threshold Effect of Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Gebka, Bartosz, 2006. "Leaders and Laggards: International Evidence on Spillovers in Returns, Variance, and Trading Volume," Working Paper Series 2006,1, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    5. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    7. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Koubaa, Yosra & Slim, Skander, 2019. "The relationship between trading activity and stock market volatility: Does the volume threshold matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 168-184.
    9. Wang, Zijun & Qian, Yan & Wang, Shiwen, 2018. "Dynamic trading volume and stock return relation: Does it hold out of sample?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 195-210.
    10. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    11. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Untangling the nexus of stock price and trading volume: evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(15), pages 1-16.
    12. Anirut Pisedtasalasai & Abeyratna Gunasekarage, 2007. "Causal and Dynamic Relationships among Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from Emerging markets in South-East Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 277-297, December.
    13. Abhinava Tripathi, 2021. "The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-19, January.
    14. Kausik Chaudhuri & Alok Kumar, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Model for Indian Stock Price and Volume," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(3), pages 239-257, December.
    15. Sarika Mahajan & Balwinder Singh, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    17. Gupta, Suman & Das, Debojyoti & Hasim, Haslifah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume revisited: A MODWT-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 91-98.
    18. Lee, Jaeram & Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Difference in the intraday return-volume relationships of spots and futures: A quantile regression approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-68, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Cetin Ciner, 2003. "Dynamic Linkages Between Trading Volume and Price Movements: Evidence for Small Firm Stocks," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, Spring.
    20. Brajesh Kumar, 2010. "The Dynamic Relationship between Price and Trading Volume: Evidence from Indian Stock Market," Working Papers id:2379, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trading volume; Volume–return causality; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:144-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.