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Coal consumption and industrial production nexus in USA: Cointegration with two unknown structural breaks and causality approaches

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  • Yildirim, Ertugrul
  • Aslan, Alper
  • Ozturk, Ilhan

Abstract

The paper investigates the causality relationships among industrial production index, coal consumption and employment in industrial sector for the period of 1973:1–2011:10 in USA. After noticing that there are breaks in the regression model, the Hatemi-J test for cointegration is employed to the cases that take into account two possible regime shifts. It is concluded that there is a long run relationship between industrial production and industrial coal consumption with the breaks at 1983:4 and 1998:4. We found a negative relationship between coal consumption and industrial production for the period of 1973:1–1983:4 and positive relationship for 1983:5–1998:4 period. For the last period that covers 1983:5–2011:10, the cointegration relationship turned to negative. In addition, the results show that causal relationship between coal consumption and industrial production changes over time.

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  • Yildirim, Ertugrul & Aslan, Alper & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2012. "Coal consumption and industrial production nexus in USA: Cointegration with two unknown structural breaks and causality approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 6123-6127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:8:p:6123-6127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.07.002
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